{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5e85f6d-98ac-4c61-8e5f-78322997be53", "symbol": "AUEM", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.139, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.176, "architecture_energy": 17.561, "architecture_maturity": 64.5, "architecture_confidence": 93.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.31, "rotation_up": 16.5, "upward_expansion": 45.36, "deceleration": 87.9, "rotation_down": 42.03, "downward_expansion": 30.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.542, 8.670291, 8.687862, 8.517065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.657, "trend_reference": 8.2941, "distance_from_trend": 0.043754, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.139506, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.410048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.387118, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105055, "excess_performance": 0.022172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043754, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.410048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123362, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013871, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206282, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105055, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.973626, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 424892, "relative_activity": 0.721253, "balance": 0.973626, "dry_up": 0.73976, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045566, "annualized_volatility": 0.268709, "from_high_reference": -0.06944, "from_low_reference": 0.355622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.2941, "fair_value_reference": 6.139506, "structural_low": 7.151, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004728, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011828, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.146204, "worst_return": -0.049439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051711, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.05421, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.216224, "worst_return": 0.008458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.046142, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083541, "worst_return": 0.017761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.138704, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.125089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212179, "worst_return": 0.065229, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004067, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027624, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023772, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137785, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.280912, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023165, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.668, "volume": 23555, "typical_volume": 47043.05, "trend": 4.783283, "fair_value": 5.292173, "relative_strength": 2.022194, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.189795, "energy": 13.754172, "activity_lines": [ 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"activity_lines": [ 8.529133, 8.695909, 8.671143, 8.491168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.657, "volume": 424892, "typical_volume": 589102.45, "trend": 8.2941, "fair_value": 6.139506, "relative_strength": 1.387118, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.17614, "energy": 17.560623, "activity_lines": [ 8.542, 8.670291, 8.687862, 8.517065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }