{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5e9f6ff-17a0-464a-9e66-358d3fddea59", "symbol": "00708L", "name": "Yuanta S&P GSCI Gold 2X Leveraged ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.01, "architecture_energy": 60.748, "architecture_maturity": 67.763, "architecture_confidence": 93.17, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 28.19, "upward_expansion": 11.64, "deceleration": 60.28, "rotation_down": 53.0, "downward_expansion": 84.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.556666, 72.935455, 79.226666, 85.853226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.599998, "trend_reference": 94.303333, "distance_from_trend": -0.177123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.456602, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.688466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.39845, "excess_performance": -0.777761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040398, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424988, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.53168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.346885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.39845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.958531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23065718, "relative_activity": 1.451084, "balance": 0.958531, "dry_up": 1.00041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080293, "annualized_volatility": 0.563242, "from_high_reference": -0.467216, "from_low_reference": 0.398198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.303333, "fair_value_reference": 54.456602, "structural_low": 67.650002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011066, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.000341, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.171387, "worst_return": -0.161928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028537, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.01137, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.238938, "worst_return": -0.059159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.165644, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.146847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244775, "worst_return": 0.041262, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 70.353334, 72.593637, 80.027619, 86.962473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.599998, "volume": 23065718, "typical_volume": 15895509.15, "trend": 94.303333, "fair_value": 54.456602, "relative_strength": -34.688466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.009584, "energy": 60.747984, "activity_lines": [ 72.556666, 72.935455, 79.226666, 85.853226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }