{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5eea050-edf3-4124-bb23-2e547b4b318a", "symbol": "300846", "name": "Capitalonline Data Service Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.963, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.917, "architecture_energy": 54.611, "architecture_maturity": 23.657, "architecture_confidence": 89.506, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.74, "rotation_up": 20.13, "upward_expansion": 8.77, "deceleration": 49.64, "rotation_down": 60.02, "downward_expansion": 82.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.598, 20.080909, 22.584048, 24.445548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.99, "trend_reference": 26.080333, "distance_from_trend": -0.195179, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.7925, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.816158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.179758, "excess_performance": -0.187157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195179, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001395, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.584886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225184, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179758, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.047068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200077101, "relative_activity": 1.290571, "balance": 1.047068, "dry_up": 1.130555, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143695, "annualized_volatility": 0.732053, "from_high_reference": -0.462209, "from_low_reference": 0.23398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.080333, "fair_value_reference": 17.7925, "structural_low": 17.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002932, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.015293, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.425439, "worst_return": -0.153916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051089, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.096602, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.523383, "worst_return": -0.243223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.066867, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006447, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.126654, "worst_return": -0.263736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.274061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188869, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159028, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 13.36, "volume": 91346135, "typical_volume": 239483075.25, "trend": 14.636333, "fair_value": 17.073242, "relative_strength": 4.627206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", 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"relative_strength": -20.352419, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.036052, "energy": 64.760873, "activity_lines": [ 21.234667, 22.676364, 25.275762, 26.264989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.51, "volume": 137100937, "typical_volume": 191328392.8, "trend": 26.256667, "fair_value": 17.70391, "relative_strength": -23.799571, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.830087, "energy": 80.13019, "activity_lines": [ 20.279334, 21.575455, 24.428333, 25.764731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.110001, "volume": 211398471, "typical_volume": 179405009.8, "trend": 26.229, "fair_value": 17.723974, "relative_strength": -25.327556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.495094, "energy": 77.651627, "activity_lines": [ 19.374667, 20.619091, 23.623714, 25.23914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.08, "volume": 152502805, "typical_volume": 161150291.8, "trend": 26.141667, "fair_value": 17.748398, "relative_strength": -19.70563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.443782, "energy": 64.235249, "activity_lines": [ 19.107334, 20.080182, 22.982, 24.777914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.99, "volume": 200077101, "typical_volume": 155029870.3, "trend": 26.080333, "fair_value": 17.7925, "relative_strength": -15.816158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.917439, "energy": 54.610694, "activity_lines": [ 19.598, 20.080909, 22.584048, 24.445548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }