{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c5f449f9-e4c6-40ee-bf61-872faa1683b3", "symbol": "ABNX", "name": "ABIONYX Pharma SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.164, "architecture_energy": 66.473, "architecture_maturity": 52.337, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 26.95, "upward_expansion": 12.32, "deceleration": 48.51, "rotation_down": 57.73, "downward_expansion": 85.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.915067, 1.992473, 2.431745, 2.717152 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.968, "trend_reference": 3.063065, "distance_from_trend": -0.357506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.918532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.398798, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.463029, "excess_performance": -0.51634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.357506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.91572, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.443988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.605065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.463029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 479491, "relative_activity": 0.845968, "balance": 0.468878, "dry_up": 0.845004, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134093, "annualized_volatility": 0.523635, "from_high_reference": -0.627977, "from_low_reference": 0.240858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.063065, "fair_value_reference": 1.918532, "structural_low": 1.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.027273, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.03287, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.634321, "worst_return": -0.242259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.097152, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.075169, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.482125, "worst_return": -0.450875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.23327, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.317439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.352459, "worst_return": -0.016043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.190625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": -44.919919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.769838, "energy": 93.817562, "activity_lines": [ 2.053667, 2.382942, 2.842958, 3.052055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.886, "volume": 222967, "typical_volume": 559689.15, "trend": 3.241065, "fair_value": 1.904609, "relative_strength": -44.084674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.641103, "energy": 90.97776, "activity_lines": [ 1.956867, 2.236016, 2.727192, 2.961085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.946, "volume": 729200, "typical_volume": 566314.2, "trend": 3.189265, "fair_value": 1.909301, "relative_strength": -42.696784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.208668, "energy": 87.359137, "activity_lines": [ 1.935333, 2.130163, 2.624349, 2.877533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.856, "volume": 484120, "typical_volume": 558151.0, "trend": 3.120631, "fair_value": 1.913596, "relative_strength": -46.244661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.89869, "energy": 82.074336, "activity_lines": [ 1.9004, 2.037836, 2.519359, 2.791516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.968, "volume": 479491, "typical_volume": 566795.5, "trend": 3.063065, "fair_value": 1.918532, "relative_strength": -44.398798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.163935, "energy": 66.472662, "activity_lines": [ 1.915067, 1.992473, 2.431745, 2.717152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }