{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6046602-63e4-442c-9f4a-a53a21810fcb", "symbol": "HMCH", "name": "HSBC MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.942, "architecture_energy": 20.199, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 38.135, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.67, "rotation_up": 42.69, "upward_expansion": 22.78, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 16.96, "downward_expansion": 54.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.599067, 6.487745, 6.520714, 6.588233 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.699, "trend_reference": 6.722223, "distance_from_trend": -0.003455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.021232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112563, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.887695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059525, "excess_performance": -0.230417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003455, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112563, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059525, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.311775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121826, "relative_activity": 0.477232, "balance": 0.311775, "dry_up": 0.80523, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029132, "annualized_volatility": 0.169036, "from_high_reference": -0.138774, "from_low_reference": 0.113531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.722223, "fair_value_reference": 6.021232, "structural_low": 6.016, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.004536, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.037868, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.135615, "worst_return": -0.095815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023581, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.047236, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.209416, "worst_return": -0.100209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012436, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.184203, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.084727, "worst_return": -0.155764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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20.813969, "activity_lines": [ 6.515733, 6.438018, 6.508238, 6.591087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.699, "volume": 121826, "typical_volume": 255276.3, "trend": 6.722223, "fair_value": 6.021232, "relative_strength": -17.887695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.941644, "energy": 20.19882, "activity_lines": [ 6.599067, 6.487745, 6.520714, 6.588233 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }