{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6072fc0-b598-4e3e-9906-cf818ffa2da4", "symbol": "688737", "name": "SINOTECH Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.805, "architecture_energy": 81.901, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.458, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.35, "rotation_up": 11.11, "upward_expansion": 20.23, "deceleration": 38.14, "rotation_down": 73.27, "downward_expansion": 93.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.308, 18.584182, 21.883095, 23.369914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.620001, "trend_reference": 24.851333, "distance_from_trend": -0.250744, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.621666, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176895, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.332745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.330457, "excess_performance": -0.287253, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.250744, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04364, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.487928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.330457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7240569, "relative_activity": 0.812947, "balance": 0.704941, "dry_up": 0.96515, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145956, "annualized_volatility": 0.628613, "from_high_reference": -0.423529, "from_low_reference": 0.257259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.851333, "fair_value_reference": 22.621666, "structural_low": 14.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.084596, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.0599, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.279372, "worst_return": -0.185378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030728, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048601, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.700468, "worst_return": -0.296993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.145044, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.120484, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.347983, "worst_return": -0.378693, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 16.219999, "volume": 9197185, "typical_volume": 9644063.05, "trend": 25.357333, "fair_value": 22.873324, "relative_strength": -30.252132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.743314, "energy": 93.542288, "activity_lines": [ 18.483999, 21.33109, 24.026619, 24.902129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.129999, "volume": 10933637, "typical_volume": 9502600.9, "trend": 25.153333, "fair_value": 22.780797, "relative_strength": -31.152456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.112299, "energy": 91.071418, "activity_lines": [ 17.189999, 19.980727, 23.150571, 24.306817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.99, "volume": 7013323, "typical_volume": 9166969.1, "trend": 24.978666, "fair_value": 22.694423, "relative_strength": -27.441243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.916213, "energy": 87.422334, "activity_lines": [ 16.878, 19.015818, 22.411428, 23.78015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.620001, "volume": 7240569, "typical_volume": 8906571.9, "trend": 24.851333, "fair_value": 22.621666, "relative_strength": -22.332745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.805426, "energy": 81.900928, "activity_lines": [ 17.308, 18.584182, 21.883095, 23.369914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }