{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c608d168-f774-4e2e-9537-4d54ef5649b5", "symbol": "0021", "name": "Great China Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.597, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.405, "architecture_energy": 29.472, "architecture_maturity": 8.585, "architecture_confidence": 86.368, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.73, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 6.09, "deceleration": 43.07, "rotation_down": 52.69, "downward_expansion": 77.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.07, 0.072364, 0.075352, 0.076482 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.082, "trend_reference": 0.079433, "distance_from_trend": 0.032312, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.105737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224492, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.7875, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.057471, "excess_performance": -0.02389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032312, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082049, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224492, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122866, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.25952, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.765389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15335000, "relative_activity": 2.462745, "balance": 4.765389, "dry_up": 0.975029, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.248593, "annualized_volatility": 0.701298, "from_high_reference": -0.397059, "from_low_reference": 0.490909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.079433, "fair_value_reference": 0.105737, "structural_low": 0.055, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.032907, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.007391, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 1.508475, "worst_return": -0.244186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.009615, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.019951, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 1.107692, "worst_return": -0.368932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.128062, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.727273, "worst_return": -0.343137, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.18, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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0.077333, 0.078935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.06, "volume": 7280100, "typical_volume": 5680785.85, "trend": 0.0814, "fair_value": 0.105917, "relative_strength": -32.432712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.682592, "energy": 54.214314, "activity_lines": [ 0.067533, 0.074036, 0.075729, 0.077482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.064, "volume": 645100, "typical_volume": 5597790.85, "trend": 0.0801, "fair_value": 0.10575, "relative_strength": -29.412525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.445819, "energy": 55.420789, "activity_lines": [ 0.065467, 0.0714, 0.074638, 0.076359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.082, "volume": 15335000, "typical_volume": 6226790.85, "trend": 0.079433, "fair_value": 0.105737, "relative_strength": -7.7875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.40528, "energy": 29.471695, "activity_lines": [ 0.07, 0.072364, 0.075352, 0.076482 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }