{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c60d1949-6221-4f77-940a-1dc9e0003e0c", "symbol": "GTL", "name": "GTL Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 87.238, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.843, "architecture_energy": 18.445, "architecture_maturity": 34.614, "architecture_confidence": 83.251, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.88, "rotation_up": 22.92, "upward_expansion": 38.2, "deceleration": 80.67, "rotation_down": 39.26, "downward_expansion": 38.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.426, 7.544727, 7.607524, 7.474688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.82, "trend_reference": 7.359, "distance_from_trend": 0.062644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.019936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.536831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.009032, "excess_performance": 0.052741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062644, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024307, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219556, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009032, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.434291, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1880898, "relative_activity": 1.535891, "balance": 1.434291, "dry_up": 0.927785, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067873, "annualized_volatility": 0.469125, "from_high_reference": -0.305506, "from_low_reference": 0.592668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.359, "fair_value_reference": 10.019936, "structural_low": 4.91, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.072727, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.071832, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.096774, "worst_return": -0.148305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.113636, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.078222, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.844156, "worst_return": 0.036364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.324675, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.19141, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.392157, "worst_return": 0.236364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036427, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09127, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.167043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072702, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.95, "volume": 1352195, "typical_volume": 2482798.5, "trend": 5.998333, "fair_value": 9.663782, "relative_strength": -5.704337, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.631074, "energy": 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"typical_volume": 1216084.25, "trend": 7.413, "fair_value": 10.010128, "relative_strength": -10.526496, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.224271, "energy": 17.563485, "activity_lines": [ 7.483333, 7.702182, 7.591381, 7.46628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.17, "volume": 633833, "typical_volume": 1194437.75, "trend": 7.381667, "fair_value": 10.0125, "relative_strength": -7.410731, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.366818, "energy": 22.230438, "activity_lines": [ 7.320667, 7.596364, 7.574238, 7.450602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.29, "volume": 1056511, "typical_volume": 1192742.65, "trend": 7.355, "fair_value": 10.014679, "relative_strength": -7.795588, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.146739, "energy": 25.62531, "activity_lines": [ 7.266667, 7.519455, 7.567238, 7.444688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.82, "volume": 1880898, "typical_volume": 1224629.95, "trend": 7.359, "fair_value": 10.019936, "relative_strength": -1.536831, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.842605, "energy": 18.444708, "activity_lines": [ 7.426, 7.544727, 7.607524, 7.474688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }