{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6114e96-8641-4362-848d-8b30f478c189", "symbol": "000530", "name": "Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.538, "architecture_energy": 57.113, "architecture_maturity": 48.073, "architecture_confidence": 85.923, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 16.46, "upward_expansion": 9.15, "deceleration": 48.4, "rotation_down": 65.05, "downward_expansion": 82.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.836, 4.972567, 5.321262, 5.578062 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.93, "trend_reference": 5.982413, "distance_from_trend": -0.175918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.404823, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087852, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.575726, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.27924, "excess_performance": -0.28664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087852, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216148, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620442, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62125321, "relative_activity": 0.814546, "balance": 0.620442, "dry_up": 0.846851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093638, "annualized_volatility": 0.35324, "from_high_reference": -0.406024, "from_low_reference": 0.102908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.982413, "fair_value_reference": 5.404823, "structural_low": 4.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.019452, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.015838, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.157593, "worst_return": -0.106173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.081517, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.06634, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.580902, "worst_return": -0.198997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.174178, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.241212, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.594164, "worst_return": 0.005643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-78.202242, "energy": 81.273678, "activity_lines": [ 5.026869, 5.297788, 5.57682, 5.838873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.62, "volume": 74336555, "typical_volume": 76849795.55, "trend": 6.138413, "fair_value": 5.411731, "relative_strength": -27.998569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.710471, "energy": 81.000078, "activity_lines": [ 4.866791, 5.134654, 5.465856, 5.734223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.85, "volume": 51665284, "typical_volume": 76034697.3, "trend": 6.06208, "fair_value": 5.408431, "relative_strength": -22.562726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.777551, "energy": 70.117492, "activity_lines": [ 4.833746, 5.038246, 5.385893, 5.6511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.93, "volume": 62125321, "typical_volume": 76269839.55, "trend": 5.982413, "fair_value": 5.404823, "relative_strength": -24.575726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.538156, "energy": 57.113241, "activity_lines": [ 4.836, 4.972567, 5.321262, 5.578062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }