{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c612490a-4090-423f-9338-552f911d9125", "symbol": "FERRO", "name": "Ferroamp AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.576, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.024, "architecture_energy": 38.457, "architecture_maturity": 25.638, "architecture_confidence": 90.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.04, "rotation_up": 19.93, "upward_expansion": 11.84, "deceleration": 35.7, "rotation_down": 51.0, "downward_expansion": 78.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.856, 2.891909, 2.951833, 2.961043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.73, "trend_reference": 3.018167, "distance_from_trend": -0.095477, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.600786, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.512568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.545092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.226629, "excess_performance": -0.288123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.512568, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.446567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226629, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.308559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 547898, "relative_activity": 0.678571, "balance": 0.308559, "dry_up": 0.501583, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109467, "annualized_volatility": 0.414176, "from_high_reference": -0.43125, "from_low_reference": 1.481818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.018167, "fair_value_reference": 5.600786, "structural_low": 2.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.019866, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.001402, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.447368, "worst_return": -0.53578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.048843, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005709, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.757895, "worst_return": -0.62518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.106684, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.662791, "worst_return": -0.709551, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023891, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.296358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046856, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.844785, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.965, "volume": 358517, "typical_volume": 890888.3, "trend": 2.904, "fair_value": 5.846588, "relative_strength": 14.346343, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.354635, "energy": 8.31185, "activity_lines": [ 2.944, 2.967545, 2.981452, 2.981011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.9, "volume": 387925, "typical_volume": 867224.1, "trend": 2.933333, "fair_value": 5.791588, "relative_strength": 11.698449, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.218901, "energy": 1.754332, "activity_lines": [ 2.938667, 2.946636, 2.976548, 2.980753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.035, "volume": 357997, "typical_volume": 849799.25, "trend": 2.969, "fair_value": 5.738094, "relative_strength": 13.740415, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.734744, "energy": 2.938575, "activity_lines": [ 2.976, 2.955909, 2.985071, 2.987312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.83, "volume": 326150, "typical_volume": 824608.5, "trend": 2.998167, "fair_value": 5.664953, "relative_strength": 3.740175, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.216207, "energy": 19.834639, "activity_lines": [ 2.927333, 2.928455, 2.973238, 2.978344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.73, "volume": 547898, "typical_volume": 807429.1, "trend": 3.018167, "fair_value": 5.600786, "relative_strength": -2.545092, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.024133, "energy": 38.456847, "activity_lines": [ 2.856, 2.891909, 2.951833, 2.961043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }