{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c614ec63-7e6d-49c5-a33c-2c880c4a1dc1", "symbol": "300066", "name": "Sanchuan Wisdom Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.595, "architecture_energy": 66.37, "architecture_maturity": 38.245, "architecture_confidence": 83.277, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.61, "rotation_up": 11.88, "upward_expansion": 14.27, "deceleration": 38.82, "rotation_down": 68.39, "downward_expansion": 87.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.032667, 5.286689, 5.603911, 5.892787 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.46, "trend_reference": 6.261883, "distance_from_trend": -0.128058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.956429, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.27443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.2574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180013, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.654174, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148535010, "relative_activity": 1.392347, "balance": 1.654174, "dry_up": 0.844628, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126884, "annualized_volatility": 0.65599, "from_high_reference": -0.419766, "from_low_reference": 0.243736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.261883, "fair_value_reference": 4.956429, "structural_low": 4.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.027273, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.022369, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.20303, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046697, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.137431, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.684916, "worst_return": -0.205628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.239475, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.095801, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.809823, "worst_return": -0.212425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068602, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036145, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212922, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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5.895432, 6.152098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.58, "volume": 71813510, "typical_volume": 114636024.35, "trend": 6.332216, "fair_value": 4.954274, "relative_strength": -30.64213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.429496, "energy": 82.843715, "activity_lines": [ 4.991333, 5.415504, 5.745115, 6.035353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 68363129, "typical_volume": 106108910.1, "trend": 6.28755, "fair_value": 4.953403, "relative_strength": -23.333579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.560111, "energy": 78.851345, "activity_lines": [ 4.900667, 5.295831, 5.644989, 5.946178 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.46, "volume": 148535010, "typical_volume": 106679602.1, "trend": 6.261883, "fair_value": 4.956429, "relative_strength": -19.27443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.595326, "energy": 66.369781, "activity_lines": [ 5.032667, 5.286689, 5.603911, 5.892787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }