{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c61c8b35-fa41-42b0-a2c0-e77d08cc09fb",
    "symbol": "VFEA",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF USD Accumulation",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 67.779,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 60.282,
    "architecture_energy": 26.161,
    "architecture_maturity": 56.068,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.57,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.13,
        "rotation_up": 36.88,
        "upward_expansion": 64.43,
        "deceleration": 88.96,
        "rotation_down": 29.06,
        "downward_expansion": 13.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 88.900002,
    "trend_reference": 84.689833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.049713,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 67.830993,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31061,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.436722,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.058459,
    "excess_performance": 0.007224,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049713,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03262,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.31061,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051421,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004367,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.075085,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.058459,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.23085,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
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      "relative_activity": 2.560671,
      "balance": 3.23085,
      "dry_up": 1.453003,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.03015,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.184455,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008698,
      "from_low_reference": 0.488354
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 67.830993,
      "structural_low": 59.7304,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
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    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
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        "median_return": 0.001615,
        "positive_rate": 0.56,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.56,
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        "worst_return": -0.09109,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.037563,
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      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 64.921923,
        "relative_strength": 4.223587,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "relative_strength": 7.945258,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "relative_strength": 4.577309,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 58.209903,
        "energy": 58.921107,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 86.040001,
        "volume": 196120,
        "typical_volume": 192705.7,
        "trend": 81.730499,
        "fair_value": 65.574904,
        "relative_strength": 2.091902,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 55.229709,
        "energy": 44.104392,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 190395.3,
        "trend": 82.014499,
        "fair_value": 65.793301,
        "relative_strength": 4.439244,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 37.540558,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 157815.25,
        "trend": 82.2745,
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        "relative_strength": 2.662869,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 13330,
        "typical_volume": 154670.3,
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        "fair_value": 66.198109,
        "relative_strength": 3.023096,
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        "energy": 31.161814,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 5.377714,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 0.610115,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 49.678198,
        "energy": 27.328185,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 87.660004,
        "volume": 39492,
        "typical_volume": 142703.15,
        "trend": 83.4905,
        "fair_value": 66.841058,
        "relative_strength": 1.262906,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 87.82,
        "volume": 109224,
        "typical_volume": 145229.95,
        "trend": 83.8245,
        "fair_value": 67.045417,
        "relative_strength": 3.095365,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.936088,
        "energy": 46.695338,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 84.699997,
        "volume": 127491,
        "typical_volume": 144130.35,
        "trend": 84.033499,
        "fair_value": 67.235032,
        "relative_strength": -1.519868,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.162818,
        "energy": 17.729812,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.504666,
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          86.097237,
          85.194333
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 85.5,
        "volume": 71678,
        "typical_volume": 98038.1,
        "trend": 84.247499,
        "fair_value": 67.415865,
        "relative_strength": -1.84895,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.699922,
        "energy": 16.626232,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.05,
          86.512,
          86.18319,
          85.288946
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 86.339996,
        "volume": 154738,
        "typical_volume": 98585.7,
        "trend": 84.436499,
        "fair_value": 67.609711,
        "relative_strength": -2.116835,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.268938,
        "energy": 15.440161,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.073332,
          86.450726,
          86.323237,
          85.423945
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 88.900002,
        "volume": 278728,
        "typical_volume": 108849.6,
        "trend": 84.689833,
        "fair_value": 67.830993,
        "relative_strength": 0.436722,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.281925,
        "energy": 26.161069,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.905333,
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          86.673809,
          85.711913
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}