{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c62136f3-8a1e-4c36-9eea-e87da7ce44dc", "symbol": "WDC", "name": "Western Digital Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.717, "architecture_energy": 18.725, "architecture_maturity": 63.965, "architecture_confidence": 71.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.03, "rotation_up": 15.02, "upward_expansion": 52.36, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 37.69, "downward_expansion": 20.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 8630.517318, 9316.753445, 9111.582801, 8301.622028 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7416.0, "trend_reference": 7150.998145, "distance_from_trend": 0.037058, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2447.406042, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.030147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 43.169035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.517229, "excess_performance": 0.571896, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037058, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.446517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.030147, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.679769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.43169, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.022331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.517229, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.95651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6592, "relative_activity": 1.361843, "balance": 1.95651, "dry_up": 1.21284, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222476, "annualized_volatility": 0.809355, "from_high_reference": -0.433632, "from_low_reference": 4.343651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7150.998145, "fair_value_reference": 2447.406042, "structural_low": 4342.680176, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020487, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.079937, "worst_return": -0.057002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009356, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007598, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105333, "worst_return": -0.124045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057617, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033005, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089431, "worst_return": 0.025803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009639, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005539, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098924, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178773, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307768, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": 87.355136, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.910554, "energy": 22.454159, "activity_lines": [ 9320.10931, 9764.11843, 9197.012384, 8276.252668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7416.0, "volume": 6592, "typical_volume": 4840.5, "trend": 7150.998145, "fair_value": 2447.406042, "relative_strength": 43.169035, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.71654, "energy": 18.724579, "activity_lines": [ 8630.517318, 9316.753445, 9111.582801, 8301.622028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }