{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c62c2d5f-82db-4501-97a5-43d34bd628d8",
    "symbol": "CMC",
    "name": "Chaoprayamahanakorn Public Company Limited",
    "exchange": "SET",
    "country": "TH",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SET.BK",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 27.531,
    "architecture_energy": 23.993,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.149,
    "architecture_confidence": 42.637,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 47.78,
        "rotation_up": 44.71,
        "upward_expansion": 46.61,
        "deceleration": 47.86,
        "rotation_down": 26.56,
        "downward_expansion": 9.61
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.437333,
        0.435273,
        0.408143,
        0.403204
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.44,
    "trend_reference": 0.407667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.079313,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.869192,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.493783,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -20.790288,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.023256,
    "excess_performance": -0.169069,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079313,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065699,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.493783,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.135822,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.207903,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.249188,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023256,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.541277,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 837100,
      "relative_activity": 0.617556,
      "balance": 2.541277,
      "dry_up": 2.149974,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.117133,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.640849,
      "from_high_reference": -0.531915,
      "from_low_reference": 0.375
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.407667,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.869192,
      "structural_low": 0.32,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.05572,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.095871,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": -0.021277,
        "worst_return": -0.090164,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.057377,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.046162,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.057377,
        "worst_return": -0.057377,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.07377,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.192187,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.07377,
        "worst_return": -0.07377,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.344262,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.208287,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.344262,
        "worst_return": -0.344262,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2021-07-23",
        "end": "2021-09-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.119403,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2021-09-17",
        "end": "2021-11-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.160584,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2021-12-03",
        "end": "2022-03-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.118307,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2022-03-25",
        "end": "2022-10-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.09697,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2022-10-14",
        "end": "2023-03-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.004627,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-03-24",
        "end": "2023-06-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.048276,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-06-16",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.092029,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.065574,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.026786,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.069565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.445455,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.147541,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.339623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.06383,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 1.196219,
        "volume": 686900,
        "typical_volume": 372005.0,
        "trend": 1.375255,
        "fair_value": 1.284668,
        "relative_strength": -10.754775,
        "stage": 4,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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      },
      {
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
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        "date": "2024-01-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 881990.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 7064700,
        "typical_volume": 1225885.0,
        "trend": 0.413,
        "fair_value": 0.884054,
        "relative_strength": -21.454809,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 30.438638,
        "energy": 53.623563,
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          0.447333,
          0.420364,
          0.39481,
          0.398882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.43,
        "volume": 3122200,
        "typical_volume": 1353495.0,
        "trend": 0.411,
        "fair_value": 0.878759,
        "relative_strength": -25.762638,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.166613,
        "energy": 35.280352,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.441333,
          0.426182,
          0.399,
          0.399978
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.43,
        "volume": 633200,
        "typical_volume": 1381500.0,
        "trend": 0.409,
        "fair_value": 0.873912,
        "relative_strength": -23.944455,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.174992,
        "energy": 25.669382,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.438,
          0.430545,
          0.403095,
          0.401204
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.44,
        "volume": 837100,
        "typical_volume": 1355505.0,
        "trend": 0.407667,
        "fair_value": 0.869192,
        "relative_strength": -20.790288,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.531331,
        "energy": 23.993178,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.437333,
          0.435273,
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          0.403204
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}