{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c62c6c9f-2035-4e4c-a156-fba87383fcf9", "symbol": "ETHX-B", "name": "CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.969, "architecture_energy": 22.122, "architecture_maturity": 80.84, "architecture_confidence": 59.502, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.3, "rotation_up": 30.81, "upward_expansion": 19.24, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 19.96, "downward_expansion": 53.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.323667, 9.031909, 9.340643, 9.631559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.495, "trend_reference": 10.242667, "distance_from_trend": -0.072995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.404103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.291635, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.708663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047643, "excess_performance": -0.168064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.291635, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130999, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056217, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.835737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 346500, "relative_activity": 0.519288, "balance": 0.835737, "dry_up": 0.908941, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081257, "annualized_volatility": 0.467556, "from_high_reference": -0.603052, "from_low_reference": 0.24443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.242667, "fair_value_reference": 13.404103, "structural_low": 7.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.058602, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.056991, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.442231, "worst_return": -0.342348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.266186, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.180689, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.903525, "worst_return": -0.269789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.471383, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.493892, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.44602, "worst_return": -0.407652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.371865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040353, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.312578, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", 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8.381667, 8.880909, 9.625667, 10.133312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.98, "volume": 1115200, "typical_volume": 773145.0, "trend": 10.976833, "fair_value": 13.394519, "relative_strength": -45.117526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.549788, "energy": 56.498941, "activity_lines": [ 8.617333, 8.794818, 9.539262, 9.991366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.16, "volume": 909600, "typical_volume": 758480.0, "trend": 10.793833, "fair_value": 13.395288, "relative_strength": -43.063818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.219355, "energy": 44.05306, "activity_lines": [ 8.835333, 8.780182, 9.472714, 9.874151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.32, "volume": 620000, "typical_volume": 715180.0, "trend": 10.629833, "fair_value": 13.397596, "relative_strength": -41.294329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.382003, "energy": 28.706359, "activity_lines": [ 9.047333, 8.832455, 9.422167, 9.779065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.28, "volume": 549900, "typical_volume": 700135.0, "trend": 10.4315, "fair_value": 13.400545, "relative_strength": -40.349776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.05354, "energy": 23.392364, "activity_lines": [ 9.194667, 8.905091, 9.368857, 9.691978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.495, "volume": 346500, "typical_volume": 667260.0, "trend": 10.242667, "fair_value": 13.404103, "relative_strength": -39.708663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.969143, "energy": 22.12193, "activity_lines": [ 9.323667, 9.031909, 9.340643, 9.631559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }