{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c63efc4d-0c9d-48f7-b0ea-903875d7414d", "symbol": "STG", "name": "Sunlands Technology Group", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.972, "architecture_energy": 25.079, "architecture_maturity": 22.134, "architecture_confidence": 88.729, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.4, "rotation_up": 20.73, "upward_expansion": 6.49, "deceleration": 42.33, "rotation_down": 48.27, "downward_expansion": 72.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.513333, 3.630909, 3.644685, 3.747462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.4, "trend_reference": 4.007903, "distance_from_trend": -0.151676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.611675, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.485758, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.025, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.299691, "excess_performance": -0.425316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.485758, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030922, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.44025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100318, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.980038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28846, "relative_activity": 0.020522, "balance": 10.980038, "dry_up": 0.020619, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.319199, "annualized_volatility": 1.566787, "from_high_reference": -0.705184, "from_low_reference": 0.396304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.007903, "fair_value_reference": 6.611675, "structural_low": 2.435, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.037546, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.001509, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.153767, "worst_return": -0.165544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.178569, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.121161, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 2.41791, "worst_return": -0.362153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077386, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047134, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.78022, "worst_return": -0.171598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.369963, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015001, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.8843, "worst_return": -0.032, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.624288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104299, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.284615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229896, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028269, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.552066, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143577, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.51, "volume": 35343, "typical_volume": 57020.5, "trend": 7.14335, "fair_value": 8.193233, "relative_strength": -7.274894, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 3.97, "volume": 34079, "typical_volume": 1403153.55, "trend": 4.339237, "fair_value": 6.666379, "relative_strength": -39.626188, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.972396, "energy": 9.544161, "activity_lines": [ 3.904667, 3.83694, 3.730106, 3.926727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.57, "volume": 33592, "typical_volume": 1404629.5, "trend": 4.25657, "fair_value": 6.658149, "relative_strength": -43.094811, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.981091, "energy": 11.312858, "activity_lines": [ 3.856, 3.808364, 3.707009, 3.877099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.81, "volume": 24644, "typical_volume": 1404791.2, "trend": 4.170237, "fair_value": 6.6509, "relative_strength": -37.249846, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.567681, "energy": 7.116935, "activity_lines": [ 3.841333, 3.817091, 3.711721, 3.848288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.29, "volume": 28847, "typical_volume": 1405255.5, "trend": 4.08257, "fair_value": 6.636996, "relative_strength": -45.393338, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.728764, "energy": 16.958227, "activity_lines": [ 3.626667, 3.719273, 3.670322, 3.791498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.4, "volume": 28846, "typical_volume": 1405641.7, "trend": 4.007903, "fair_value": 6.611675, "relative_strength": -44.025, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.972073, "energy": 25.079291, "activity_lines": [ 3.513333, 3.630909, 3.644685, 3.747462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }