{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c64b5776-9502-4860-aa33-f19e157af9b2", "symbol": "IFLN", "name": "INVESCO BLOOMBERG ENHANCED FALLEN ANGELS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.794, "architecture_energy": 22.777, "architecture_maturity": 38.154, "architecture_confidence": 67.467, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.84, "rotation_up": 39.74, "upward_expansion": 62.55, "deceleration": 78.55, "rotation_down": 27.13, "downward_expansion": 17.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.167038, 18.168253, 18.14695, 18.114687 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.26, "trend_reference": 18.111444, "distance_from_trend": 0.008202, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.857829, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.85286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001704, "excess_performance": -0.127329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008202, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001964, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001704, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.367734, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146263, "relative_activity": 0.218988, "balance": 5.367734, "dry_up": 0.170024, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007797, "annualized_volatility": 0.056324, "from_high_reference": -0.006243, "from_low_reference": 0.041264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.111444, "fair_value_reference": 16.857829, "structural_low": 17.562159, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002711, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.019525, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.01654, "worst_return": -0.035205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005665, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019242, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.077362, "worst_return": -0.058554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018728, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090766, "worst_return": 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22.076077, "energy": 26.996771, "activity_lines": [ 18.185294, 18.159104, 18.108265, 18.102627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.19399, "volume": 92660, "typical_volume": 798723.45, "trend": 18.113956, "fair_value": 16.794623, "relative_strength": -7.356556, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.725674, "energy": 34.762996, "activity_lines": [ 18.190709, 18.169621, 18.121834, 18.107995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.0745, "volume": 106785, "typical_volume": 751571.05, "trend": 18.111911, "fair_value": 16.815012, "relative_strength": -7.197449, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.877432, "energy": 10.368911, "activity_lines": [ 18.157444, 18.157448, 18.124303, 18.10545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.105, "volume": 108532, "typical_volume": 691969.0, "trend": 18.109906, "fair_value": 16.835869, "relative_strength": -7.765861, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.190309, "energy": 4.904385, "activity_lines": [ 18.133458, 18.14897, 18.129138, 18.105004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.26, "volume": 146263, "typical_volume": 667904.05, "trend": 18.111444, "fair_value": 16.857829, "relative_strength": -9.85286, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.794284, "energy": 22.77679, "activity_lines": [ 18.167038, 18.168253, 18.14695, 18.114687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }