{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c64c7262-99e5-4c6d-aa85-b53fdc181c68", "symbol": "RACE", "name": "Ferrari NV", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.749, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.055, "architecture_energy": 66.282, "architecture_maturity": 22.017, "architecture_confidence": 70.664, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.56, "rotation_up": 72.05, "upward_expansion": 87.53, "deceleration": 46.75, "rotation_down": 13.92, "downward_expansion": 11.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 389.833333, 381.592909, 367.204606, 359.195425 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 412.26, "trend_reference": 350.797267, "distance_from_trend": 0.175209, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 394.166047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045904, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.026841, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.264014, "excess_performance": 0.138389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.175209, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004782, "read": "Falling" 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305.358426, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.003628, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.005353, "regime_survival": 0.655172, "best_return": 0.133754, "worst_return": -0.089353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.091849, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.028594, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.233671, "worst_return": -0.123381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.105006, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.027691, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.388421, "worst_return": -0.182752, 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"close": 393.87, "volume": 4174655, "typical_volume": 2936558.7, "trend": 349.307972, "fair_value": 393.430769, "relative_strength": -4.616687, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.092933, "energy": 50.132733, "activity_lines": [ 378.576667, 373.273818, 361.395704, 355.134004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 412.26, "volume": 2979830, "typical_volume": 2892255.6, "trend": 350.797267, "fair_value": 394.166047, "relative_strength": -3.026841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.055324, "energy": 66.281888, "activity_lines": [ 389.833333, 381.592909, 367.204606, 359.195425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }