{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c650bb13-0074-4170-b71b-c6db86ee069e", "symbol": "3188", "name": "ChinaAMC ETF Series - ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.317, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.288, "architecture_energy": 23.853, "architecture_maturity": 45.972, "architecture_confidence": 64.941, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.81, "rotation_up": 14.66, "upward_expansion": 14.84, "deceleration": 70.64, "rotation_down": 58.02, "downward_expansion": 39.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.930666, 56.663272, 57.096571, 56.664301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 56.759998, "trend_reference": 56.074, "distance_from_trend": 0.012234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.964494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.598749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049168, "excess_performance": 0.08275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0279, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262329, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045987, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062828, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049168, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476965, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8101373, "relative_activity": 1.024001, "balance": 0.476965, "dry_up": 1.466821, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03941, "annualized_volatility": 0.16912, "from_high_reference": -0.055574, "from_low_reference": 0.223803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.074, "fair_value_reference": 44.964494, "structural_low": 51.48, "invalidation": "A decisive 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55.816848, "energy": 41.611463, "activity_lines": [ 58.494666, 58.379636, 57.361428, 56.620516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 57.68, "volume": 12632281, "typical_volume": 8126706.9, "trend": 55.817333, "fair_value": 44.637502, "relative_strength": 14.311314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.722688, "energy": 34.448943, "activity_lines": [ 58.273333, 58.284, 57.477904, 56.751871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.639999, "volume": 22318069, "typical_volume": 8665599.8, "trend": 55.889333, "fair_value": 44.720218, "relative_strength": 6.207876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.276813, "energy": 11.984595, "activity_lines": [ 57.034666, 57.62509, 57.289714, 56.675914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.560001, "volume": 8332301, "typical_volume": 8326487.05, "trend": 55.970666, "fair_value": 44.796924, "relative_strength": 5.885882, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.682316, "energy": 18.731709, "activity_lines": [ 56.304, 57.200363, 57.198, 56.654666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.380001, "volume": 7667227, "typical_volume": 8050808.75, "trend": 56.02, "fair_value": 44.870852, "relative_strength": 1.520834, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.18706, "energy": 26.934702, "activity_lines": [ 55.782667, 56.784727, 57.082952, 56.616559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.759998, "volume": 8101373, "typical_volume": 7911489.8, "trend": 56.074, "fair_value": 44.964494, "relative_strength": 4.598749, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.288476, "energy": 23.853422, "activity_lines": [ 55.930666, 56.663272, 57.096571, 56.664301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }