{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c655be14-945c-4694-9d8d-8d02bf74e6a4", "symbol": "JAPN-B", "name": "CI Japan Equity Index ETF Non-Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.731, "architecture_energy": 55.568, "architecture_maturity": 81.347, "architecture_confidence": 74.269, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 52.59, "upward_expansion": 81.84, "deceleration": 68.39, "rotation_down": 27.93, "downward_expansion": 8.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.17, 49.968613, 49.126026, 48.317582 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.459999, "trend_reference": 47.403363, "distance_from_trend": 0.085577, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.288596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.418076, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.849697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094748, "excess_performance": -0.025673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085577, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.418076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041062, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028497, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007584, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.867435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5800, "relative_activity": 0.58029, "balance": 1.867435, "dry_up": 0.887944, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023092, "annualized_volatility": 0.216443, "from_high_reference": -0.003582, "from_low_reference": 0.341026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.403363, "fair_value_reference": 36.288596, "structural_low": 42.85159, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.016616, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.001248, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.11576, "worst_return": -0.136142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010736, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01502, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.187029, "worst_return": -0.049603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067691, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.020184, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.280864, "worst_return": -0.024883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 25900, "typical_volume": 13775.0, "trend": 46.421954, "fair_value": 35.704141, "relative_strength": 4.239803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.455811, "energy": 89.23762, "activity_lines": [ 50.160869, 49.509091, 48.223916, 47.540281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.490002, "volume": 22400, "typical_volume": 13170.0, "trend": 46.645596, "fair_value": 35.844165, "relative_strength": 0.173573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.408452, "energy": 57.379868, "activity_lines": [ 49.686142, 49.420469, 48.342589, 47.673703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.110001, "volume": 6900, "typical_volume": 12205.0, "trend": 46.897051, "fair_value": 35.984245, "relative_strength": 1.100358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.811321, "energy": 48.264659, "activity_lines": [ 49.423334, 49.423179, 48.521499, 47.832697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.119999, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 9915.0, "trend": 47.167228, "fair_value": 36.1308, "relative_strength": 3.503688, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.142512, "energy": 43.755733, "activity_lines": [ 49.587334, 49.593162, 48.774341, 48.040629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.459999, "volume": 5800, "typical_volume": 9995.0, "trend": 47.403363, "fair_value": 36.288596, "relative_strength": 2.849697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.731433, "energy": 55.567902, "activity_lines": [ 50.17, 49.968613, 49.126026, 48.317582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }