{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6563bf9-02fb-4670-ba3b-1bf487e186d9", "symbol": "NAHARCAP", "name": "Nahar Capital and Financial Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.382, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.949, "architecture_energy": 29.047, "architecture_maturity": 26.961, "architecture_confidence": 57.96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.36, "rotation_up": 40.24, "upward_expansion": 63.97, "deceleration": 66.29, "rotation_down": 23.08, "downward_expansion": 8.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 253.740006, 251.991821, 251.945907, 247.75041 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 266.640015, "trend_reference": 242.933668, "distance_from_trend": 0.097584, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 283.412045, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059179, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.245156, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112901, "excess_performance": 0.15661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097584, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016454, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059179, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042452, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01278, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112901, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.248977, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133617, "relative_activity": 4.10359, "balance": 1.248977, "dry_up": 1.22593, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057358, "annualized_volatility": 0.323285, "from_high_reference": -0.131466, "from_low_reference": 0.396021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 242.933668, "fair_value_reference": 283.412045, "structural_low": 191.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.015304, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.005418, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.171697, "worst_return": -0.057565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016004, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.031839, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086051, "worst_return": -0.221362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031803, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.047879, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086093, "worst_return": 0.02049, "sufficient": 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"up", "direction": 15.250772, "energy": 10.957179, "activity_lines": [ 247.326, 249.096182, 249.976334, 246.165829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 266.640015, "volume": 133617, "typical_volume": 32561.0, "trend": 242.933668, "fair_value": 283.412045, "relative_strength": 4.245156, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.948712, "energy": 29.046562, "activity_lines": [ 253.740006, 251.991821, 251.945907, 247.75041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }