{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c659b667-3b0a-432a-932b-67e323fb2183", "symbol": "UST", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PROSHARES ULTRA 7-10 YR TREASURY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.047, "architecture_energy": 63.101, "architecture_maturity": 40.251, "architecture_confidence": 89.855, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.73, "rotation_up": 12.82, "upward_expansion": 13.63, "deceleration": 38.99, "rotation_down": 65.8, "downward_expansion": 86.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.27706, 41.583483, 41.835985, 42.175669 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.4389, "trend_reference": 42.638454, "distance_from_trend": -0.028133, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.216859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.321356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047898, "excess_performance": -0.173523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015081, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024708, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047898, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.763681, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13300, "relative_activity": 0.259067, "balance": 0.763681, "dry_up": 0.789464, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018742, "annualized_volatility": 0.107486, "from_high_reference": -0.083733, "from_low_reference": 0.018906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.638454, "fair_value_reference": 41.216859, 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"direction": -48.304573, "energy": 25.65927, "activity_lines": [ 42.092152, 42.013618, 42.241431, 42.570963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.8317, "volume": 19616, "typical_volume": 73157.0, "trend": 42.882388, "fair_value": 41.208061, "relative_strength": -11.062944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.293081, "energy": 25.747235, "activity_lines": [ 41.991823, 41.987852, 42.169038, 42.499259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.0761, "volume": 33579, "typical_volume": 56885.85, "trend": 42.792844, "fair_value": 41.207509, "relative_strength": -11.88207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.933862, "energy": 55.196068, "activity_lines": [ 41.650067, 41.838366, 42.040588, 42.382725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.8534, "volume": 95623, "typical_volume": 51875.2, "trend": 42.708819, "fair_value": 41.207737, "relative_strength": -12.925833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.097933, "energy": 70.784833, "activity_lines": [ 41.302427, 41.651587, 41.904858, 42.257599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.4389, "volume": 13300, "typical_volume": 51338.0, "trend": 42.638454, "fair_value": 41.216859, "relative_strength": -14.321356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.046869, "energy": 63.100618, "activity_lines": [ 41.27706, 41.583483, 41.835985, 42.175669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }