{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c65e414e-e6d0-44fa-9dbe-8135488da715", "symbol": "LCOR", "name": "WisdomTree Corn 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.014, "architecture_energy": 22.425, "architecture_maturity": 76.62, "architecture_confidence": 69.8, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.12, "rotation_up": 34.73, "upward_expansion": 20.95, "deceleration": 43.97, "rotation_down": 22.52, "downward_expansion": 54.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.836447, 0.81582, 0.836747, 0.860872 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.8198, "trend_reference": 0.880957, "distance_from_trend": -0.069421, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.291165, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.36507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.292334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078359, "excess_performance": -0.24925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.36507, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.227848, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 353499, "relative_activity": 1.079474, "balance": 1.227848, "dry_up": 1.156317, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082947, "annualized_volatility": 0.372946, "from_high_reference": -0.21445, "from_low_reference": 0.123014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.880957, "fair_value_reference": 1.291165, "structural_low": 0.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.007373, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.032347, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.15546, "worst_return": -0.210064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.040444, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.078823, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.298863, "worst_return": -0.351287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.141841, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.233323, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.008976, "worst_return": -0.303602, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133731, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044658, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142908, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081935, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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-24.395556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.473908, "energy": 69.408887, "activity_lines": [ 0.775247, 0.797422, 0.85219, 0.872717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8327, "volume": 204975, "typical_volume": 334226.55, "trend": 0.890257, "fair_value": 1.321129, "relative_strength": -19.627143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.781808, "energy": 42.360777, "activity_lines": [ 0.796393, 0.797785, 0.846719, 0.868775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9073, "volume": 387162, "typical_volume": 342742.8, "trend": 0.888827, "fair_value": 1.309429, "relative_strength": -11.867576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.625443, "energy": 16.802256, "activity_lines": [ 0.8372, 0.813824, 0.848684, 0.869875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.815, "volume": 569016, "typical_volume": 342789.8, "trend": 0.885517, "fair_value": 1.30033, "relative_strength": -20.880189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.565289, "energy": 23.106051, "activity_lines": [ 0.83744, 0.813173, 0.842011, 0.865112 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8198, "volume": 353499, "typical_volume": 327473.4, "trend": 0.880957, "fair_value": 1.291165, "relative_strength": -22.292334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.01429, "energy": 22.424722, "activity_lines": [ 0.836447, 0.81582, 0.836747, 0.860872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }