{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6687e29-0de8-4af1-8f42-ce458e3c2e7d", "symbol": "PSL", "name": "Paterson Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 75.866, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.784, "architecture_energy": 35.98, "architecture_maturity": 35.702, "architecture_confidence": 79.812, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.87, "rotation_up": 22.46, "upward_expansion": 9.19, "deceleration": 57.01, "rotation_down": 48.51, "downward_expansion": 73.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.034067, 0.034473, 0.038281, 0.040581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.034, "trend_reference": 0.042133, "distance_from_trend": -0.193038, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.024873, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36695, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.445365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209302, "excess_performance": -0.273008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026807, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36695, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124454, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.465242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209302, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.298147, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4576374, "relative_activity": 3.870878, "balance": 1.298147, "dry_up": 1.239697, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222851, "annualized_volatility": 0.952338, "from_high_reference": -0.433333, "from_low_reference": 1.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.042133, "fair_value_reference": 0.024873, "structural_low": 0.0285, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.029993, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.111111, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.035728, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.057257, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.358984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107149, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.121488, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.416667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": 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"mixed", "direction": -24.119616, "energy": 46.644523, "activity_lines": [ 0.037933, 0.041618, 0.044181, 0.043839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.036, "volume": 340042, "typical_volume": 1979461.5, "trend": 0.042167, "fair_value": 0.024905, "relative_strength": 0.366844, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.245503, "energy": 56.314463, "activity_lines": [ 0.037, 0.040291, 0.043286, 0.043456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.029, "volume": 482671, "typical_volume": 1804972.35, "trend": 0.0421, "fair_value": 0.024901, "relative_strength": -19.209645, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.804397, "energy": 64.942813, "activity_lines": [ 0.034, 0.0378, 0.041733, 0.042606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.034, "volume": 590062, "typical_volume": 1707209.6, "trend": 0.042133, "fair_value": 0.024922, "relative_strength": -5.932555, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.436894, "energy": 62.555942, "activity_lines": [ 0.033667, 0.036527, 0.040733, 0.042084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.032, "volume": 354334, "typical_volume": 1220504.05, "trend": 0.042033, "fair_value": 0.024906, "relative_strength": -11.773092, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.303297, "energy": 61.2734, "activity_lines": [ 0.0328, 0.035036, 0.039595, 0.04143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.037, "volume": 341796, "typical_volume": 1083478.55, "trend": 0.042133, "fair_value": 0.024908, "relative_strength": -1.092417, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.501819, "energy": 45.858262, "activity_lines": [ 0.033933, 0.034873, 0.039048, 0.041105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.034, "volume": 4576374, "typical_volume": 1182257.4, "trend": 0.042133, "fair_value": 0.024873, "relative_strength": -12.445365, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.784137, "energy": 35.979613, "activity_lines": [ 0.034067, 0.034473, 0.038281, 0.040581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }