{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c669bc02-5e18-4579-ac83-d4357a8d1e65", "symbol": "KARMAENG", "name": "Karma Energy Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.74, "architecture_energy": 44.719, "architecture_maturity": 14.879, "architecture_confidence": 89.716, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.78, "rotation_up": 15.56, "upward_expansion": 6.8, "deceleration": 45.39, "rotation_down": 61.5, "downward_expansion": 82.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.351334, 39.888182, 42.251095, 42.564366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.209999, "trend_reference": 42.748333, "distance_from_trend": -0.035986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.083462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.325349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.446201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041446, "excess_performance": 0.085155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.325349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041446, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61990, "relative_activity": 2.378376, "balance": 0.695368, "dry_up": 1.262911, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095944, "annualized_volatility": 0.501585, "from_high_reference": -0.440841, "from_low_reference": 0.198662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.748333, "fair_value_reference": 61.083462, "structural_low": 34.380001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.061083, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02836, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.419016, "worst_return": -0.238556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035969, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.228137, "worst_return": -0.245211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04096, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162338, "worst_return": -0.2234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-60.237726, "energy": 54.210323, "activity_lines": [ 40.080666, 41.273636, 43.399571, 43.358796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.18, "volume": 20148, "typical_volume": 24758.9, "trend": 43.315, "fair_value": 61.135064, "relative_strength": -17.282639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.857423, "energy": 67.410228, "activity_lines": [ 39.272, 40.433636, 42.915143, 43.003183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.240002, "volume": 22402, "typical_volume": 24034.3, "trend": 42.936667, "fair_value": 61.098141, "relative_strength": -18.572411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.509199, "energy": 66.816113, "activity_lines": [ 38.643334, 39.825455, 42.441476, 42.675764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.209999, "volume": 61990, "typical_volume": 26064.0, "trend": 42.748333, "fair_value": 61.083462, "relative_strength": -12.446201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.740043, "energy": 44.718778, "activity_lines": [ 39.351334, 39.888182, 42.251095, 42.564366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }