{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c66b5143-84cc-4579-828b-74d7800f833b", "symbol": "NVG", "name": "Nuveen AMT-Free Municipal Credit Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.358, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.128, "architecture_energy": 11.998, "architecture_maturity": 20.48, "architecture_confidence": 57.47, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.9, "rotation_up": 21.12, "upward_expansion": 22.66, "deceleration": 65.79, "rotation_down": 46.99, "downward_expansion": 31.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.475441, 12.543965, 12.521334, 12.504966 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.52, "trend_reference": 12.506637, "distance_from_trend": 0.001068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.058289, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132182, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.535916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011219, "excess_performance": -0.136844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033663, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085359, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011219, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2261084, "relative_activity": 0.877997, "balance": 1.087377, "dry_up": 0.893126, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019987, "annualized_volatility": 0.131378, "from_high_reference": -0.049781, "from_low_reference": 0.155716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.506637, "fair_value_reference": 11.058289, "structural_low": 11.68752, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.01429, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.019966, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.042047, "worst_return": -0.07443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034188, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.093962, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.041165, "worst_return": -0.206195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.05365, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065199, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.151748, 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"2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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12.46374, "fair_value": 10.982657, "relative_strength": -5.383116, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.389421, "energy": 60.330714, "activity_lines": [ 12.685723, 12.604323, 12.515323, 12.508186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.67, "volume": 2057541, "typical_volume": 2681760.25, "trend": 12.484902, "fair_value": 11.001612, "relative_strength": -4.02458, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.075128, "energy": 56.673123, "activity_lines": [ 12.692356, 12.627052, 12.533829, 12.521493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.3, "volume": 2517578, "typical_volume": 2601104.6, "trend": 12.492446, "fair_value": 11.01872, "relative_strength": -6.221809, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.220913, "energy": 12.427358, "activity_lines": [ 12.564586, 12.581058, 12.518529, 12.509564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.4, "volume": 2363978, "typical_volume": 2587863.35, "trend": 12.498826, "fair_value": 11.038041, "relative_strength": -6.359323, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.682125, "energy": 7.060487, "activity_lines": [ 12.490293, 12.553117, 12.514045, 12.5036 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.52, "volume": 2261084, "typical_volume": 2575275.65, "trend": 12.506637, "fair_value": 11.058289, "relative_strength": -8.535916, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.127692, "energy": 11.997817, "activity_lines": [ 12.475441, 12.543965, 12.521334, 12.504966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }