{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c66cf8da-8ef5-45d7-a5d7-88609c875e34", "symbol": "TKO", "name": "Tikehau Capital", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.801, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.333, "architecture_energy": 11.173, "architecture_maturity": 8.689, "architecture_confidence": 68.243, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.46, "rotation_up": 33.49, "upward_expansion": 53.77, "deceleration": 69.23, "rotation_down": 26.09, "downward_expansion": 24.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.968, 17.097091, 17.245065, 17.012581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.02, "trend_reference": 16.649255, "distance_from_trend": 0.022268, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.1868, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064156, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.515232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12554, "excess_performance": 0.072228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022268, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050344, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.064156, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045152, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12554, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.228063, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 304641, "relative_activity": 1.174671, "balance": 2.228063, "dry_up": 1.216779, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061647, "annualized_volatility": 0.459551, "from_high_reference": -0.130315, "from_low_reference": 0.222809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.649255, "fair_value_reference": 18.1868, "structural_low": 14.128798, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.003868, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.00302, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.294584, "worst_return": -0.134122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004915, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002365, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.185882, "worst_return": -0.184511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004145, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.081631, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.141478, "worst_return": -0.024661, "sufficient": false }, { 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286289.3, "trend": 16.415384, "fair_value": 18.262168, "relative_strength": 0.563238, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.183771, "energy": 18.227368, "activity_lines": [ 17.196, 17.346182, 17.182884, 16.867654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.98, "volume": 482708, "typical_volume": 258009.4, "trend": 16.515755, "fair_value": 18.247764, "relative_strength": 4.040795, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.538508, "energy": 27.061848, "activity_lines": [ 17.449333, 17.432363, 17.285926, 16.968597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.58, "volume": 150772, "typical_volume": 251305.05, "trend": 16.598973, "fair_value": 18.227681, "relative_strength": 1.701015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.340113, "energy": 35.535486, "activity_lines": [ 17.553333, 17.441091, 17.351172, 17.037258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.82, "volume": 324124, "typical_volume": 253959.85, "trend": 16.623525, "fair_value": 18.203678, "relative_strength": -9.490298, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.880334, "energy": 3.224678, "activity_lines": [ 17.041333, 17.141091, 17.243638, 16.987002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.02, "volume": 304641, "typical_volume": 259341.5, "trend": 16.649255, "fair_value": 18.1868, "relative_strength": -4.515232, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.332782, "energy": 11.173017, "activity_lines": [ 16.968, 17.097091, 17.245065, 17.012581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }