{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c66fea26-3132-41b1-af91-c67c5631ddb6", "symbol": "000620", "name": "Winnovation Culturaltainment Development Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.072, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.536, "architecture_energy": 41.395, "architecture_maturity": 29.038, "architecture_confidence": 59.618, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.42, "rotation_up": 13.61, "upward_expansion": 7.74, "deceleration": 53.73, "rotation_down": 66.68, "downward_expansion": 74.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.778667, 2.972727, 2.993, 2.995075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.78, "trend_reference": 3.042667, "distance_from_trend": -0.086328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.082885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.186848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.172619, "excess_performance": -0.180019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.970111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 883207793, "relative_activity": 0.89746, "balance": 0.970111, "dry_up": 1.275545, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138074, "annualized_volatility": 0.554844, "from_high_reference": -0.320293, "from_low_reference": 0.770701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.042667, "fair_value_reference": 2.082885, "structural_low": 2.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.01107, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.00731, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.926829, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.067797, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008611, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.502793, "worst_return": -0.597403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.028454, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.650655, "worst_return": -0.594771, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017751, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087121, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.204301, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135734, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023569, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.239669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033457, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 1.73, "volume": 195027489, "typical_volume": 202597158.8, "trend": 2.354667, "fair_value": 2.652692, "relative_strength": -30.09802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.76, "volume": 2042246779, "typical_volume": 1016162595.4, "trend": 3.050333, "fair_value": 2.063397, "relative_strength": 4.889725, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.682906, "energy": 43.334119, "activity_lines": [ 3.261333, 3.180182, 3.074905, 3.06114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.69, "volume": 1160634827, "typical_volume": 1034925821.25, "trend": 3.044333, "fair_value": 2.070128, "relative_strength": 1.260354, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.016426, "energy": 8.816253, "activity_lines": [ 3.066667, 3.098727, 3.044857, 3.037892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.64, "volume": 935061595, "typical_volume": 1037035073.2, "trend": 3.039333, "fair_value": 2.07609, "relative_strength": 0.361591, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.784045, "energy": 31.383247, "activity_lines": [ 2.873333, 3.018545, 3.011381, 3.011806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.78, "volume": 883207793, "typical_volume": 984118933.5, "trend": 3.042667, "fair_value": 2.082885, "relative_strength": -0.186848, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.536233, "energy": 41.395484, "activity_lines": [ 2.778667, 2.972727, 2.993, 2.995075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }