{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c672fab8-0c83-452e-b5da-e55f8e2bec26", "symbol": "MTPI", "name": "iShares MSCI EM ex China UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.214, "architecture_energy": 26.064, "architecture_maturity": 66.212, "architecture_confidence": 89.672, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.69, "rotation_up": 20.56, "upward_expansion": 54.96, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 39.82, "downward_expansion": 20.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.755867, 7.954509, 7.915367, 7.664696 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.799, "trend_reference": 7.32198, "distance_from_trend": 0.065149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.360552, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.454888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.54656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.189543, "excess_performance": 0.136231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065149, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114191, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.454888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.105466, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 449326, "relative_activity": 1.626843, "balance": 0.705018, "dry_up": 1.986838, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055875, "annualized_volatility": 0.269901, "from_high_reference": -0.105414, "from_low_reference": 0.543165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.32198, "fair_value_reference": 5.360552, "structural_low": 6.2088, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004747, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.007248, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.133419, "worst_return": -0.050798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021269, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.012155, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.303902, "worst_return": -0.054575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079013, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.030776, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.430833, "worst_return": 0.018007, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-08-09", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.040101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032555, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04512, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"direction": 65.302254, "energy": 64.349927, "activity_lines": [ 8.357867, 8.252764, 7.848885, 7.527486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.647, "volume": 589819, "typical_volume": 262654.95, "trend": 7.149847, "fair_value": 5.293378, "relative_strength": 15.28978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.879203, "energy": 41.695077, "activity_lines": [ 8.116267, 8.163327, 7.865538, 7.563643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.779, "volume": 456257, "typical_volume": 249148.15, "trend": 7.215507, "fair_value": 5.315362, "relative_strength": 16.026207, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.46692, "energy": 26.312364, "activity_lines": [ 7.9546, 8.101927, 7.891968, 7.604234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.623, "volume": 699617, "typical_volume": 275404.2, "trend": 7.269323, "fair_value": 5.337235, "relative_strength": 11.267761, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.508242, "energy": 26.19589, "activity_lines": [ 7.8004, 8.010091, 7.897959, 7.630523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.799, "volume": 449326, "typical_volume": 276195.0, "trend": 7.32198, "fair_value": 5.360552, "relative_strength": 10.54656, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.213761, "energy": 26.064327, "activity_lines": [ 7.755867, 7.954509, 7.915367, 7.664696 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }