{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c674a3d7-f431-4bc0-9a62-d85d5bf7f6e9", "symbol": "8443", "name": "SHUI-MU International Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.564, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.184, "architecture_energy": 16.376, "architecture_maturity": 20.388, "architecture_confidence": 65.163, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.43, "rotation_up": 23.1, "upward_expansion": 16.88, "deceleration": 41.71, "rotation_down": 36.71, "downward_expansion": 60.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.45, 11.44, 11.463571, 11.540968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.5, "trend_reference": 11.595, "distance_from_trend": -0.008193, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.664976, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.023793, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.004329, "excess_performance": -0.445701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008193, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005056, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014143, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007247, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004329, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013102, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119259, "relative_activity": 0.930141, "balance": 1.013102, "dry_up": 0.814393, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025418, "annualized_volatility": 0.084079, "from_high_reference": -0.065041, "from_low_reference": 0.064815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.595, "fair_value_reference": 11.664976, "structural_low": 11.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.006728, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.04661, "worst_return": -0.060606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004237, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.050588, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.038461, "worst_return": -0.030303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021213, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.07553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055988, "worst_return": -0.016529, "sufficient": true }, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021552, 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168295.8, "trend": 11.508333, "fair_value": 11.688331, "relative_strength": -38.481139, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.375984, "energy": 33.663912, "activity_lines": [ 11.36, 11.447273, 11.615476, 11.595161 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.5, "volume": 127275, "typical_volume": 172539.25, "trend": 11.521667, "fair_value": 11.685142, "relative_strength": -34.399897, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.691912, "energy": 15.479695, "activity_lines": [ 11.416667, 11.433636, 11.59881, 11.594624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.5, "volume": 130591, "typical_volume": 162323.35, "trend": 11.536667, "fair_value": 11.681953, "relative_strength": -36.619341, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.731976, "energy": 10.258131, "activity_lines": [ 11.46, 11.43, 11.581905, 11.593226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 160065.45, "trend": 11.546667, "fair_value": 11.678438, "relative_strength": -34.301828, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.823597, "energy": 10.337473, "activity_lines": [ 11.446667, 11.416364, 11.555714, 11.584409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.35, "volume": 126332, "typical_volume": 159142.65, "trend": 11.555, "fair_value": 11.674918, "relative_strength": -29.542977, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.940086, "energy": 13.373642, "activity_lines": [ 11.416667, 11.401818, 11.525714, 11.57172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.4, "volume": 60006, "typical_volume": 151627.45, "trend": 11.563333, "fair_value": 11.672348, "relative_strength": -29.927327, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.154113, "energy": 25.080497, "activity_lines": [ 11.406667, 11.404545, 11.502619, 11.56172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.5, "volume": 143221, "typical_volume": 149366.0, "trend": 11.575, "fair_value": 11.67042, "relative_strength": -27.528117, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.001851, "energy": 22.189291, "activity_lines": [ 11.43, 11.426364, 11.49119, 11.557634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.4, "volume": 95187, "typical_volume": 146419.7, "trend": 11.583333, "fair_value": 11.666905, "relative_strength": -29.043892, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.246467, "energy": 25.401997, "activity_lines": [ 11.42, 11.426364, 11.471667, 11.546344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.5, "volume": 119259, "typical_volume": 128216.05, "trend": 11.595, "fair_value": 11.664976, "relative_strength": -30.023793, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.183808, "energy": 16.375812, "activity_lines": [ 11.45, 11.44, 11.463571, 11.540968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }