{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c674cd94-5d39-4d7d-b3a0-ad16afd1a7b9", "symbol": "ELIOR", "name": "Elior Group SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.532, "architecture_energy": 28.109, "architecture_maturity": 66.578, "architecture_confidence": 78.277, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.59, "rotation_up": 26.81, "upward_expansion": 20.41, "deceleration": 45.55, "rotation_down": 29.51, "downward_expansion": 56.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.076933, 2.053509, 2.137662, 2.242755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.08, "trend_reference": 2.392376, "distance_from_trend": -0.130571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.631862, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.209685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.532751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232871, "excess_performance": -0.286183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.209685, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232871, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.327022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1108342, "relative_activity": 0.313071, "balance": 0.327022, "dry_up": 0.497547, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091753, "annualized_volatility": 0.648894, "from_high_reference": -0.339857, "from_low_reference": 0.114087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.392376, "fair_value_reference": 2.631862, "structural_low": 1.867, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010692, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.007469, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.519494, "worst_return": -0.3528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003035, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053076, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.08746, "worst_return": -0.450174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.121147, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.19477, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.018883, "worst_return": -0.270897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1915766, "typical_volume": 3894248.85, "trend": 2.480651, "fair_value": 2.638215, "relative_strength": -23.300018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.468148, "energy": 49.987562, "activity_lines": [ 2.026133, 2.042091, 2.224633, 2.339491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.02, "volume": 1725927, "typical_volume": 3836201.4, "trend": 2.45629, "fair_value": 2.633391, "relative_strength": -22.673515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.014661, "energy": 41.735196, "activity_lines": [ 2.0284, 2.018291, 2.193448, 2.309771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.06, "volume": 1565247, "typical_volume": 3709525.9, "trend": 2.435562, "fair_value": 2.631779, "relative_strength": -20.973497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.68011, "energy": 36.648405, "activity_lines": [ 2.0426, 2.014236, 2.169719, 2.284204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.13, "volume": 2646197, "typical_volume": 3665623.65, "trend": 2.416904, "fair_value": 2.63212, "relative_strength": -19.194679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.71803, "energy": 32.636632, "activity_lines": [ 2.0732, 2.039782, 2.155295, 2.264491 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.08, "volume": 1108342, "typical_volume": 3540223.6, "trend": 2.392376, "fair_value": 2.631862, "relative_strength": -22.532751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.531562, "energy": 28.109431, "activity_lines": [ 2.076933, 2.053509, 2.137662, 2.242755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }