{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c675414e-e6d8-4c65-8da9-df7302c26ef2", "symbol": "XGSD", "name": "Xtrackers Stoxx Global Select Dividend 100 Swap UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.267, "architecture_energy": 95.522, "architecture_maturity": 38.326, "architecture_confidence": 73.867, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 85.89, "upward_expansion": 97.64, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.33, "downward_expansion": 21.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 3324.5, 3273.690909, 3225.442284, 3184.665713 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3377.5, "trend_reference": 3129.996549, "distance_from_trend": 0.079075, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2582.993008, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307592, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.285966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101819, "excess_performance": 0.050583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079075, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042892, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04286, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001374, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101819, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.439485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63571, "relative_activity": 2.439414, "balance": 2.439485, "dry_up": 1.40267, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014947, "annualized_volatility": 0.086864, "from_high_reference": -0.002216, "from_low_reference": 0.287574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3129.996549, "fair_value_reference": 2582.993008, "structural_low": 2919.738039, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.003689, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.000737, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.047725, "worst_return": -0.074476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016109, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.00347, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.075348, "worst_return": -0.097143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039779, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.131658, "worst_return": -0.142171, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3302.0, "volume": 24776, "typical_volume": 25379.95, "trend": 3099.974414, "fair_value": 2569.237219, "relative_strength": 3.745525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.356724, "energy": 81.131684, "activity_lines": [ 3245.2, 3220.6, 3186.614801, 3152.2529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3340.0, "volume": 41272, "typical_volume": 23956.5, "trend": 3115.126994, "fair_value": 2575.955731, "relative_strength": 3.542059, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.309372, "energy": 90.500733, "activity_lines": [ 3283.666667, 3245.163636, 3205.030376, 3167.738422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3377.5, "volume": 63571, "typical_volume": 26059.95, "trend": 3129.996549, "fair_value": 2582.993008, "relative_strength": 4.285966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.266921, "energy": 95.521664, "activity_lines": [ 3324.5, 3273.690909, 3225.442284, 3184.665713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }