{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c67900fb-16e5-41bf-b568-2bd26e681db9", "symbol": "ALDBL", "name": "Bernard Loiseau S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.862, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.129, "architecture_energy": 19.69, "architecture_maturity": 12.29, "architecture_confidence": 65.321, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.59, "rotation_up": 48.88, "upward_expansion": 66.17, "deceleration": 53.51, "rotation_down": 20.06, "downward_expansion": 14.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.685333, 3.634182, 3.640476, 3.613118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.6, "trend_reference": 3.587333, "distance_from_trend": 0.003531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.422692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.86532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090909, "excess_performance": 0.037598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014362, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090909, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.138957, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 887, "relative_activity": 1.967613, "balance": 1.138957, "dry_up": 1.982587, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09359, "annualized_volatility": 0.505595, "from_high_reference": -0.130435, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.587333, "fair_value_reference": 3.422692, "structural_low": 3.02, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.008233, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.010467, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.147368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.010695, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.000894, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.151515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042553, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.078666, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.20625, "worst_return": -0.095238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074452, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.109195, "worst_return": -0.069149, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083799, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101796, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063694, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077844, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058824, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.78, "volume": 242, "typical_volume": 5168.8, "trend": 3.632, "fair_value": 3.401538, "relative_strength": -1.270466, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", 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359.8, "trend": 3.541333, "fair_value": 3.420385, "relative_strength": 4.383424, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.131305, "energy": 13.314623, "activity_lines": [ 3.628, 3.665091, 3.622571, 3.592258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.4, "volume": 251, "typical_volume": 342.15, "trend": 3.550667, "fair_value": 3.41859, "relative_strength": -4.467661, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.303358, "energy": 8.423182, "activity_lines": [ 3.54, 3.622182, 3.606095, 3.58314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.48, "volume": 182, "typical_volume": 302.95, "trend": 3.558667, "fair_value": 3.416538, "relative_strength": -0.39336, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.217336, "energy": 11.729412, "activity_lines": [ 3.505333, 3.589455, 3.596762, 3.578581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.64, "volume": 692, "typical_volume": 334.65, "trend": 3.569333, "fair_value": 3.417436, "relative_strength": 4.020594, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.351299, "energy": 5.894384, "activity_lines": [ 3.542667, 3.588727, 3.603619, 3.583828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.8, "volume": 1590, "typical_volume": 391.1, "trend": 3.576, "fair_value": 3.421154, "relative_strength": 7.783076, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.722441, "energy": 14.400457, "activity_lines": [ 3.630667, 3.617091, 3.624571, 3.59871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.78, "volume": 406, "typical_volume": 408.5, "trend": 3.580667, "fair_value": 3.420385, "relative_strength": 5.439204, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.074385, "energy": 25.911149, "activity_lines": [ 3.692, 3.641818, 3.641714, 3.611871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.6, "volume": 887, "typical_volume": 450.8, "trend": 3.587333, "fair_value": 3.422692, "relative_strength": -1.86532, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.128929, "energy": 19.689787, "activity_lines": [ 3.685333, 3.634182, 3.640476, 3.613118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }