{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c680e77e-4839-47da-b7c1-1e132530fb88", "symbol": "COP", "name": "ConocoPhillips", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.911, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.939, "architecture_energy": 22.34, "architecture_maturity": 21.056, "architecture_confidence": 59.804, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.88, "rotation_up": 54.95, "upward_expansion": 37.19, "deceleration": 45.46, "rotation_down": 17.16, "downward_expansion": 16.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 117.947333, 114.573091, 115.231363, 116.056475 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 117.61, "trend_reference": 114.826643, "distance_from_trend": 0.02424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.738129, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.447409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109137, "excess_performance": -0.016488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.144755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028573, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004474, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109137, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38090420, "relative_activity": 1.018557, "balance": 0.754778, "dry_up": 0.85853, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061981, "annualized_volatility": 0.314044, "from_high_reference": -0.128101, "from_low_reference": 0.408151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.826643, "fair_value_reference": 102.738129, "structural_low": 102.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013849, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003601, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.181593, "worst_return": -0.106113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025081, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.017429, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.13604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034446, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.022414, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.100736, "worst_return": -0.170415, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.054015, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037942, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072336, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 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111.853224, 115.810387, 114.764369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 109.04, "volume": 34796004, "typical_volume": 42550791.4, "trend": 111.462502, "fair_value": 102.395918, "relative_strength": -3.986524, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.134029, "energy": 48.918612, "activity_lines": [ 107.630667, 110.865058, 115.002179, 114.640132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.71, "volume": 29146469, "typical_volume": 42350740.8, "trend": 112.26657, "fair_value": 102.47151, "relative_strength": 2.44112, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.695467, "energy": 36.574927, "activity_lines": [ 109.570667, 111.148909, 114.737268, 114.849648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.26, "volume": 27921399, "typical_volume": 40315855.45, "trend": 113.268776, "fair_value": 102.564913, "relative_strength": 7.798849, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.462764, "energy": 6.219094, "activity_lines": [ 113.512, 112.411636, 114.991077, 115.365353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.48, "volume": 33265629, "typical_volume": 38939541.55, "trend": 114.108844, "fair_value": 102.6727, "relative_strength": 6.61789, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.840659, "energy": 19.407907, "activity_lines": [ 116.692, 113.753455, 115.246624, 115.830594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.61, "volume": 38090420, "typical_volume": 37396447.4, "trend": 114.826643, "fair_value": 102.738129, "relative_strength": 0.447409, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.938633, "energy": 22.340304, "activity_lines": [ 117.947333, 114.573091, 115.231363, 116.056475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }