{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6848e63-be1e-4095-b319-23cf12fafb13", "symbol": "KWEB", "name": "KRANESHARES TRUST CSI CHINA INTERNET ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.61, "architecture_energy": 19.424, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.333, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.2, "rotation_up": 42.65, "upward_expansion": 22.64, "deceleration": 41.27, "rotation_down": 16.62, "downward_expansion": 54.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.742, 26.819455, 26.963286, 27.656065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.66, "trend_reference": 29.124667, "distance_from_trend": -0.015954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.949831, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010012, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.32123, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164675, "excess_performance": -0.2903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093317, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010012, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0345, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009046, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164675, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630934, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75592763, "relative_activity": 0.650701, "balance": 0.630934, "dry_up": 0.826604, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059034, "annualized_volatility": 0.281154, "from_high_reference": -0.299243, "from_low_reference": 0.233749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.124667, "fair_value_reference": 28.949831, "structural_low": 23.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.001483, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.024309, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.308637, "worst_return": -0.22302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.02093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061377, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.397332, "worst_return": -0.223838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078186, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016814, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.374324, "worst_return": -0.379343, "sufficient": true }, 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25.844, 25.902, 26.868238, 28.005204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.29, "volume": 95300581, "typical_volume": 120767756.8, "trend": 29.601667, "fair_value": 28.924831, "relative_strength": -25.428221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.629928, "energy": 32.023541, "activity_lines": [ 26.116667, 25.917636, 26.741333, 27.773183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.49, "volume": 108049846, "typical_volume": 118798463.8, "trend": 29.363667, "fair_value": 28.93167, "relative_strength": -19.585213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.313374, "energy": 20.087585, "activity_lines": [ 27.052667, 26.367455, 26.840238, 27.701462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.66, "volume": 75592763, "typical_volume": 116171196.1, "trend": 29.124667, "fair_value": 28.949831, "relative_strength": -21.32123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.610233, "energy": 19.4244, "activity_lines": [ 27.742, 26.819455, 26.963286, 27.656065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }