{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c68521de-6f6a-4f2e-8f2b-8e6c52cfbb1c", "symbol": "000096", "name": "Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.128, "architecture_energy": 42.336, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.241, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.28, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 20.58, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 38.64, "downward_expansion": 70.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.674, 7.569636, 7.990286, 8.561462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.77, "trend_reference": 9.317667, "distance_from_trend": -0.1661, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.098243, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.299889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.813961, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.317823, "excess_performance": -0.325222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1661, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.299889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086992, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542127, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33693692, "relative_activity": 1.095067, "balance": 0.542127, "dry_up": 1.417457, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069102, "annualized_volatility": 0.304079, "from_high_reference": -0.414469, "from_low_reference": 0.119597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.317667, "fair_value_reference": 11.098243, "structural_low": 6.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.004449, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.006896, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.213563, "worst_return": -0.14916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008628, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008633, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.455814, "worst_return": -0.183824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013564, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.061249, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.376558, "worst_return": -0.317823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -38.665921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.439766, "energy": 89.067262, "activity_lines": [ 7.29, 7.651091, 8.444238, 9.033892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.88, "volume": 52255082, "typical_volume": 49355639.35, "trend": 9.585, "fair_value": 11.111191, "relative_strength": -25.794636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.740481, "energy": 66.951134, "activity_lines": [ 7.454667, 7.621636, 8.322476, 8.918516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.44, "volume": 59009479, "typical_volume": 38784042.1, "trend": 9.488333, "fair_value": 11.10724, "relative_strength": -29.232679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.684698, "energy": 63.611085, "activity_lines": [ 7.474667, 7.542, 8.173476, 8.780129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.73, "volume": 29494611, "typical_volume": 32807545.75, "trend": 9.401, "fair_value": 11.10293, "relative_strength": -24.357581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.102713, "energy": 52.964157, "activity_lines": [ 7.592667, 7.544, 8.072095, 8.666688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.77, "volume": 33693692, "typical_volume": 30768624.45, "trend": 9.317667, "fair_value": 11.098243, "relative_strength": -26.813961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.1284, "energy": 42.336261, "activity_lines": [ 7.674, 7.569636, 7.990286, 8.561462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }