{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c69d9e86-b76a-495b-b982-3d98cc082e16", "symbol": "KSAB", "name": "State Street SPDR ETFs Europe I plc - SPDR J.P. Morgan Saudi Arabia Aggregate BdUCITS ETFUSDUnh(Acc)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.522, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.453, "architecture_energy": 55.482, "architecture_maturity": 2.804, "architecture_confidence": 83.787, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.3, "rotation_up": 14.31, "upward_expansion": 25.11, "deceleration": 51.17, "rotation_down": 72.65, "downward_expansion": 54.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.1206, 27.234654, 27.384543, 27.357458 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.046, "trend_reference": 27.320533, "distance_from_trend": -0.010049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.269283, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.833151, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017545, "excess_performance": -0.108015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004796, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008188, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.055765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8388, "relative_activity": 12.628726, "balance": 0.055765, "dry_up": 3.579118, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008945, "annualized_volatility": 0.053358, "from_high_reference": -0.035724, "from_low_reference": 0.024897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.320533, "fair_value_reference": 27.269283, "structural_low": 26.830999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016013, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-09-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-09-11", "end": "2026-09-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 28.716, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 28.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 28.33, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 28.704, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 28.646, "volume": 20270, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"fair_value": 27.274837, "relative_strength": -4.721881, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.349828, "energy": 24.147767, "activity_lines": [ 27.578, 27.653691, 27.492229, 27.395809 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.395, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 754.7, "trend": 27.276833, "fair_value": 27.276218, "relative_strength": -6.952515, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.773947, "energy": 26.32077, "activity_lines": [ 27.492133, 27.611, 27.495843, 27.403832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.356001, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 626.8, "trend": 27.281767, "fair_value": 27.277125, "relative_strength": -7.421033, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.252507, "energy": 25.333374, "activity_lines": [ 27.4216, 27.557782, 27.494481, 27.40894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 26.919001, "volume": 415, "typical_volume": 442.8, "trend": 27.2817, "fair_value": 27.273101, "relative_strength": -7.746104, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.745609, "energy": 43.381489, "activity_lines": [ 27.231934, 27.427891, 27.449848, 27.385536 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 27.302999, "volume": 503, "typical_volume": 417.4, "trend": 27.305933, "fair_value": 27.273433, "relative_strength": -7.81476, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.407507, "energy": 33.119694, "activity_lines": [ 27.226267, 27.378982, 27.44321, 27.38691 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 27.118999, "volume": 203, "typical_volume": 316.45, "trend": 27.315567, "fair_value": 27.271736, "relative_strength": -6.449332, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.45735, "energy": 40.945019, "activity_lines": [ 27.178066, 27.305473, 27.417424, 27.374849 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 27.046, "volume": 8388, "typical_volume": 664.2, "trend": 27.320533, "fair_value": 27.269283, "relative_strength": -4.833151, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.45292, "energy": 55.482271, "activity_lines": [ 27.1206, 27.234654, 27.384543, 27.357458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }