{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c69e4e6b-1444-407d-b478-d7fce79ad27f", "symbol": "VOLT", "name": "WisdomTree Battery Solutions UCITS ETF - USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.144, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.24, "architecture_energy": 66.147, "architecture_maturity": 10.065, "architecture_confidence": 81.751, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.29, "rotation_up": 14.15, "upward_expansion": 30.19, "deceleration": 49.17, "rotation_down": 74.08, "downward_expansion": 59.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.189, 43.862091, 46.452381, 46.262763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.349998, "trend_reference": 45.670666, "distance_from_trend": -0.050813, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.103434, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.415311, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041066, "excess_performance": -0.129825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309532, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124153, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332879, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041066, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.364627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3833, "relative_activity": 0.333407, "balance": 0.364627, "dry_up": 0.579657, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062364, "annualized_volatility": 0.279953, "from_high_reference": -0.206044, "from_low_reference": 0.380573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.670666, "fair_value_reference": 33.103434, "structural_low": 39.669998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.023955, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084504, "worst_return": -0.036594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.066842, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193699, "worst_return": -0.060015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.333991, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.31783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.718604, "worst_return": -0.050622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.352288, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.217642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.803746, "worst_return": -0.099171, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033575, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009911, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015751, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115102, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021783, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2031, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104654, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039444, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 32.465, "volume": 10115, "typical_volume": 17782.95, "trend": 35.674666, "fair_value": 37.780128, "relative_strength": -18.19612, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.904788, "energy": 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49.726727, 48.748238, 47.307225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.990002, "volume": 9675, "typical_volume": 12365.85, "trend": 45.479666, "fair_value": 32.935325, "relative_strength": -9.076122, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.442247, "energy": 23.981454, "activity_lines": [ 46.534668, 48.540546, 48.442929, 47.221054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.299999, "volume": 9325, "typical_volume": 11983.0, "trend": 45.553166, "fair_value": 32.971318, "relative_strength": -13.433767, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.904227, "energy": 49.053745, "activity_lines": [ 44.448, 46.979636, 47.877548, 46.951398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.705002, "volume": 5930, "typical_volume": 11841.5, "trend": 45.622333, "fair_value": 33.007665, "relative_strength": -12.467752, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.910364, "energy": 65.064307, "activity_lines": [ 43.052334, 45.682182, 47.364333, 46.703129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.095001, "volume": 7568, "typical_volume": 11539.5, "trend": 45.648333, "fair_value": 33.04321, "relative_strength": -14.415448, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.723471, "energy": 72.234109, "activity_lines": [ 42.065668, 44.452092, 46.795715, 46.411043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.349998, "volume": 3833, "typical_volume": 11496.45, "trend": 45.670666, "fair_value": 33.103434, "relative_strength": -12.415311, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.239881, "energy": 66.146941, "activity_lines": [ 42.189, 43.862091, 46.452381, 46.262763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }