{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6a28e5b-6ddb-445b-b80c-111e66778355", "symbol": "BSBR", "name": "Banco Santander Brasil SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.455, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.378, "architecture_energy": 15.208, "architecture_maturity": 77.416, "architecture_confidence": 50.166, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.6, "rotation_up": 38.61, "upward_expansion": 22.52, "deceleration": 41.22, "rotation_down": 20.05, "downward_expansion": 56.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.523715, 5.377681, 5.425374, 5.557391 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.81, "trend_reference": 5.779947, "distance_from_trend": 0.0052, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.952015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.442872, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088762, "excess_performance": -0.214386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0052, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035059, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02704, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.743163, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19062598, "relative_activity": 2.512227, "balance": 1.743163, "dry_up": 1.814899, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059191, "annualized_volatility": 0.336416, "from_high_reference": -0.192085, "from_low_reference": 0.294324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.779947, "fair_value_reference": 4.952015, "structural_low": 4.898604, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.014654, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.019097, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.063419, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.053797, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.2161, "worst_return": -0.143426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222563, "worst_return": -0.191162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012605, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035168, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.168273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03218, "active": 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"typical_volume": 6012227.05, "trend": 5.845354, "fair_value": 4.93866, "relative_strength": -14.768341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.161894, "energy": 59.739451, "activity_lines": [ 5.189742, 5.252111, 5.465695, 5.651657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.133737, "volume": 9239861, "typical_volume": 6253307.7, "trend": 5.827318, "fair_value": 4.93795, "relative_strength": -15.773884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.623736, "energy": 54.925613, "activity_lines": [ 5.162321, 5.216245, 5.419227, 5.605746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.19252, "volume": 4766054, "typical_volume": 6218776.5, "trend": 5.802571, "fair_value": 4.938637, "relative_strength": -14.282877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.410388, "energy": 45.375107, "activity_lines": [ 5.173579, 5.203726, 5.384367, 5.564791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.67, "volume": 22016786, "typical_volume": 6943194.0, "trend": 5.792135, "fair_value": 4.944368, "relative_strength": -7.49696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.06402, "energy": 18.944204, "activity_lines": [ 5.344495, 5.280522, 5.398324, 5.556238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.81, "volume": 19062598, "typical_volume": 7587929.35, "trend": 5.779947, "fair_value": 4.952015, "relative_strength": -8.442872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.377646, "energy": 15.207704, "activity_lines": [ 5.523715, 5.377681, 5.425374, 5.557391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }