{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6acc698-e97d-45f2-a610-1bf2b1bbc5e2", "symbol": "BOY", "name": "Bodycote plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.167, "architecture_energy": 47.319, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.06, "rotation_up": 63.66, "upward_expansion": 47.95, "deceleration": 36.76, "rotation_down": 22.26, "downward_expansion": 17.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 773.133333, 733.327273, 725.464629, 719.012491 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 914.5, "trend_reference": 720.199032, "distance_from_trend": 0.269788, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 645.688192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.169591, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.226983, "excess_performance": 0.160704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.269788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030159, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.317563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.221696, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.226983, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.113076, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10432966, "relative_activity": 5.301434, "balance": 3.113076, "dry_up": 2.394725, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075891, "annualized_volatility": 0.57491, "from_high_reference": -0.014546, "from_low_reference": 0.563616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 720.199032, "fair_value_reference": 645.688192, "structural_low": 592.86034, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034208, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.02184, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.158602, "worst_return": -0.082237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.108613, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202176, "worst_return": 0.046875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.072608, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.249082, "worst_return": 0.016012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 682.4, 694.490909, 701.857372, 705.386564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 722.5, "volume": 3038171, "typical_volume": 1582360.05, "trend": 713.37679, "fair_value": 644.221633, "relative_strength": -2.784686, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.848729, "energy": 13.773248, "activity_lines": [ 697.0, 695.463636, 704.664943, 706.0368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 914.5, "volume": 10432966, "typical_volume": 1967951.8, "trend": 720.199032, "fair_value": 645.688192, "relative_strength": 22.169591, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.167147, "energy": 47.319403, "activity_lines": [ 773.133333, 733.327273, 725.464629, 719.012491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }