{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6b009a5-4c07-4a95-b8ac-0013ab2c9b25", "symbol": "ISPY", "name": "L&G Cyber Security UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.473, "architecture_energy": 70.65, "architecture_maturity": 88.616, "architecture_confidence": 86.231, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 59.54, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.65, "rotation_down": 28.27, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.954334, 35.340273, 33.038619, 30.763495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.665001, "trend_reference": 28.063333, "distance_from_trend": 0.342143, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.874295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.577638, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.42392, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.653787, "excess_performance": 0.550919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.342143, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123627, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.577638, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.376523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.264239, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215085, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.653787, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.083688, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49907, "relative_activity": 1.871208, "balance": 3.083688, "dry_up": 1.417317, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050077, "annualized_volatility": 0.327586, "from_high_reference": -0.021688, "from_low_reference": 0.797852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.063333, "fair_value_reference": 23.874295, "structural_low": 20.950001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.004637, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.008466, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.119728, "worst_return": -0.161993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004302, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.015733, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.20624, "worst_return": -0.176183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018514, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.094703, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.105194, "worst_return": -0.068972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.549564, "energy": 92.490075, "activity_lines": [ 35.017999, 33.600727, 30.474071, 28.562828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.919998, "volume": 24268, "typical_volume": 29020.9, "trend": 26.973833, "fair_value": 23.538115, "relative_strength": 23.423332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.259575, "energy": 84.824713, "activity_lines": [ 35.653665, 34.272545, 31.231642, 29.162677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.435001, "volume": 56031, "typical_volume": 27413.1, "trend": 27.2955, "fair_value": 23.642814, "relative_strength": 18.128111, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.992144, "energy": 71.038651, "activity_lines": [ 35.513333, 34.51409, 31.785785, 29.644043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.610001, "volume": 20999, "typical_volume": 27038.05, "trend": 27.628, "fair_value": 23.748686, "relative_strength": 18.263807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.372959, "energy": 66.394089, "activity_lines": [ 35.265333, 34.682182, 32.294143, 30.115946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.665001, "volume": 49907, "typical_volume": 26671.0, "trend": 28.063333, "fair_value": 23.874295, "relative_strength": 26.42392, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.472521, "energy": 70.650473, "activity_lines": [ 35.954334, 35.340273, 33.038619, 30.763495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }