{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c6bbd637-dca7-459e-a868-652925c68aac",
    "symbol": "XMTM",
    "name": "iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 32.042,
    "architecture_energy": 28.246,
    "architecture_maturity": 67.004,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.639,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.01,
        "rotation_up": 19.75,
        "upward_expansion": 55.14,
        "deceleration": 94.0,
        "rotation_down": 33.38,
        "downward_expansion": 21.14
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        52.502001,
        53.653334,
        52.782547,
        50.551549
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 52.580002,
    "trend_reference": 47.797707,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.100053,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 37.100544,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41723,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 2.10756,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.243197,
    "excess_performance": 0.122776,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100053,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084318,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.41723,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.037669,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021076,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027306,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.243197,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.869136,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 12100,
      "relative_activity": 0.908408,
      "balance": 1.869136,
      "dry_up": 1.687312,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.052405,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.240041,
      "from_high_reference": -0.108908,
      "from_low_reference": 0.330919
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 47.797707,
      "fair_value_reference": 37.100544,
      "structural_low": 39.50655,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.012435,
        "positive_rate": 0.5625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010431,
        "regime_survival": 0.4375,
        "best_return": 0.105263,
        "worst_return": -0.060712,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.048679,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001649,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.17698,
        "worst_return": -0.12648,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.192633,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.043728,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.346028,
        "worst_return": -0.151026,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.079657,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024285,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.51352,
        "worst_return": -0.167032,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.08224,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.075075,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00688,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.101604,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.070376,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053588,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.01858,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.014078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009159,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.131251,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.074019,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": true
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    ],
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        "fair_value": 34.238861,
        "relative_strength": -2.014032,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 46.165399,
        "energy": 52.619109,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.887802,
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          42.839418
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 47.408779,
        "volume": 2000,
        "typical_volume": 7722.1,
        "trend": 43.156801,
        "fair_value": 34.395627,
        "relative_strength": -0.642593,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 54.453305,
        "energy": 77.965305,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.096768,
          44.183051,
          43.229012,
          43.120516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 50.295662,
        "volume": 9000,
        "typical_volume": 8049.85,
        "trend": 43.364197,
        "fair_value": 34.569871,
        "relative_strength": 4.838138,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.231242,
        "energy": 97.073429,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 50.365585,
        "volume": 62800,
        "typical_volume": 11160.5,
        "trend": 43.570526,
        "fair_value": 34.74405,
        "relative_strength": 5.80996,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.383978,
        "energy": 95.186629,
        "activity_lines": [
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          44.032791
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 51.23465,
        "volume": 20400,
        "typical_volume": 11575.0,
        "trend": 43.789172,
        "fair_value": 34.925598,
        "relative_strength": 5.649899,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.324436,
        "energy": 93.961211,
        "activity_lines": [
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          44.52725
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 53.172554,
        "volume": 13300,
        "typical_volume": 11640.0,
        "trend": 44.080911,
        "fair_value": 35.121816,
        "relative_strength": 8.67269,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.181089,
        "energy": 95.68969,
        "activity_lines": [
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          49.192753,
          46.190176,
          45.13263
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 52.523258,
        "volume": 3900,
        "typical_volume": 11460.0,
        "trend": 44.393486,
        "fair_value": 35.313229,
        "relative_strength": 8.414415,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.36264,
        "energy": 90.213592,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.002486,
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          45.677297
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 55.430119,
        "volume": 23200,
        "typical_volume": 12315.0,
        "trend": 44.802277,
        "fair_value": 35.518846,
        "relative_strength": 12.534772,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 91.009547,
        "energy": 94.09019,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 58.666618,
        "volume": 3900,
        "typical_volume": 12105.0,
        "trend": 45.358372,
        "fair_value": 35.747777,
        "relative_strength": 18.685023,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 95.456996,
        "energy": 97.102664,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.346873,
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          47.283812
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 56.779999,
        "volume": 6500,
        "typical_volume": 12295.0,
        "trend": 45.802644,
        "fair_value": 35.962954,
        "relative_strength": 14.675121,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.119924,
        "energy": 88.228866,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.20506,
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          50.172405,
          48.020691
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 54.700001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 10700.0,
        "trend": 46.175203,
        "fair_value": 36.164862,
        "relative_strength": 9.549066,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.292767,
        "energy": 69.183439,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.000223,
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          50.89166,
          48.594714
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 55.75,
        "volume": 8500,
        "typical_volume": 10460.0,
        "trend": 46.598395,
        "fair_value": 36.370539,
        "relative_strength": 11.334109,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.6402,
        "energy": 67.007185,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.043557,
          55.042261,
          51.650365,
          49.212443
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 51.889999,
        "volume": 53200,
        "typical_volume": 12855.0,
        "trend": 46.882046,
        "fair_value": 36.55173,
        "relative_strength": 3.783214,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.027429,
        "energy": 52.303782,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.585108,
          54.678289,
          51.978564,
          49.553836
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 52.740002,
        "volume": 7200,
        "typical_volume": 12970.0,
        "trend": 47.189611,
        "fair_value": 36.736824,
        "relative_strength": 5.182402,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.958978,
        "energy": 37.03209,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.646,
          54.439875,
          52.341356,
          49.931769
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 51.720001,
        "volume": 17400,
        "typical_volume": 13090.0,
        "trend": 47.503805,
        "fair_value": 36.916153,
        "relative_strength": 3.635006,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.935903,
        "energy": 26.933369,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.762001,
          53.972835,
          52.546843,
          50.224052
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 52.580002,
        "volume": 12100,
        "typical_volume": 13320.0,
        "trend": 47.797707,
        "fair_value": 37.100544,
        "relative_strength": 2.10756,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.042124,
        "energy": 28.245606,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.502001,
          53.653334,
          52.782547,
          50.551549
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}