{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6c024d9-f6de-4dd3-8d61-dc686f28f5b9", "symbol": "SKYE", "name": "Skye Bioscience, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.396, "architecture_energy": 70.561, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.684, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.37, "rotation_up": 10.78, "upward_expansion": 14.54, "deceleration": 37.78, "rotation_down": 76.92, "downward_expansion": 92.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.587687, 0.633862, 0.697997, 0.716303 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.5194, "trend_reference": 0.755493, "distance_from_trend": -0.312502, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.786147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.862816, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -68.041618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366044, "excess_performance": -0.553498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.312502, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165533, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.862816, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.680416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.336755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1165301, "relative_activity": 1.355976, "balance": 0.336755, "dry_up": 0.935288, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230081, "annualized_volatility": 0.65858, "from_high_reference": -0.895916, "from_low_reference": 0.881884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.755493, "fair_value_reference": 3.786147, "structural_low": 0.276, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.026801, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.056072, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 1.317365, "worst_return": -0.44148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.042128, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120743, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 3.054054, "worst_return": -0.431374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.36499, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.392219, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 5.658824, "worst_return": -0.546667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.560086, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095116, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.784184, "energy": 47.046958, "activity_lines": [ 0.699567, 0.728425, 0.75241, 0.764334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.6493, "volume": 933174, "typical_volume": 1846254.7, "trend": 0.786107, "fair_value": 3.875315, "relative_strength": -63.667076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.405831, "energy": 48.957222, "activity_lines": [ 0.67834, 0.708678, 0.743148, 0.754904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6519, "volume": 325943, "typical_volume": 1819948.0, "trend": 0.78117, "fair_value": 3.837667, "relative_strength": -61.194537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.204165, "energy": 47.041854, "activity_lines": [ 0.667173, 0.693284, 0.734589, 0.746246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5685, "volume": 790661, "typical_volume": 866079.25, "trend": 0.770847, "fair_value": 3.80926, "relative_strength": -64.871133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.95558, "energy": 66.887056, "activity_lines": [ 0.6319, 0.665665, 0.718412, 0.732525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5194, "volume": 1165301, "typical_volume": 859381.8, "trend": 0.755493, "fair_value": 3.786147, "relative_strength": -68.041618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.395707, "energy": 70.561296, "activity_lines": [ 0.587687, 0.633862, 0.697997, 0.716303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }