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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.593, "architecture_energy": 59.025, "architecture_maturity": 56.403, "architecture_confidence": 79.366, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 55.77, "upward_expansion": 82.64, "deceleration": 63.15, "rotation_down": 26.52, "downward_expansion": 9.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 163.683338, 163.03607, 160.293866, 157.856238 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 166.460007, "trend_reference": 155.352593, "distance_from_trend": 0.071498, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 125.317929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.902984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082634, "excess_performance": -0.037787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071498, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018855, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082634, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.964427, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9400, "relative_activity": 0.538836, "balance": 2.964427, "dry_up": 0.491545, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020514, "annualized_volatility": 0.173544, "from_high_reference": -0.00615, "from_low_reference": 0.249216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.352593, "fair_value_reference": 125.317929, "structural_low": 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"close": 163.119995, "volume": 10500, "typical_volume": 25945.0, "trend": 153.160767, "fair_value": 123.672357, "relative_strength": -0.304024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.624337, "energy": 82.133505, "activity_lines": [ 163.111092, 160.876014, 157.316614, 155.533695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 160.130005, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 24115.0, "trend": 153.675757, "fair_value": 124.062834, "relative_strength": -1.926376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.657912, "energy": 67.167765, "activity_lines": [ 162.290399, 161.080132, 157.856975, 155.983323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 161.710007, "volume": 6600, "typical_volume": 21775.0, "trend": 154.25177, "fair_value": 124.45937, "relative_strength": -1.139494, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.787072, "energy": 55.527195, "activity_lines": [ 162.013335, 161.48189, 158.534031, 156.501662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 163.610001, "volume": 15300, "typical_volume": 18130.0, "trend": 154.822318, "fair_value": 124.880353, "relative_strength": 0.494437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.527721, "energy": 51.496806, "activity_lines": [ 162.459336, 162.065778, 159.321948, 157.105419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 166.460007, "volume": 9400, "typical_volume": 17445.0, "trend": 155.352593, "fair_value": 125.317929, "relative_strength": -0.902984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.593486, "energy": 59.024714, "activity_lines": [ 163.683338, 163.03607, 160.293866, 157.856238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }