{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6cf7175-186d-4279-9dc0-908336a9e13e", "symbol": "KEN", "name": "Kenon Holdings", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 63.258, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.8, "architecture_energy": 46.693, "architecture_maturity": 17.622, "architecture_confidence": 94.809, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.62, "rotation_up": 21.62, "upward_expansion": 6.84, "deceleration": 51.09, "rotation_down": 57.36, "downward_expansion": 82.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.053333, 67.420545, 73.100291, 75.056223 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 66.13, "trend_reference": 75.777595, "distance_from_trend": -0.127315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.978515, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.788336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.127222, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054223, "excess_performance": -0.179848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045964, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.788336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.956956, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.504225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.379326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101185, "relative_activity": 0.798648, "balance": 0.379326, "dry_up": 0.792201, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096569, "annualized_volatility": 0.451179, "from_high_reference": -0.310643, "from_low_reference": 0.669582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.777595, "fair_value_reference": 36.978515, "structural_low": 63.83, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.022649, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.011915, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.172888, "worst_return": -0.139651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097141, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.100713, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.174936, "worst_return": -0.13122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.096667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.140496, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.051311, "worst_return": -0.212298, 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"direction": -34.953236, "energy": 64.253284, "activity_lines": [ 67.221333, 72.233455, 77.322746, 77.209689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.91, "volume": 87454, "typical_volume": 127736.7, "trend": 75.420103, "fair_value": 36.022409, "relative_strength": -4.646052, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.640854, "energy": 62.966445, "activity_lines": [ 66.474667, 70.229818, 76.079581, 76.605981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.37, "volume": 94070, "typical_volume": 127375.2, "trend": 75.687099, "fair_value": 36.351612, "relative_strength": 0.534839, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.021665, "energy": 38.392992, "activity_lines": [ 67.318, 69.273091, 75.206084, 76.215651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.37, "volume": 118764, "typical_volume": 126706.1, "trend": 75.784033, "fair_value": 36.668646, "relative_strength": -3.770655, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.323045, "energy": 45.006459, "activity_lines": [ 67.442667, 68.292727, 74.194549, 75.679064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.13, "volume": 101185, "typical_volume": 126695.4, "trend": 75.777595, "fair_value": 36.978515, "relative_strength": -9.127222, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.800206, "energy": 46.692667, "activity_lines": [ 67.053333, 67.420545, 73.100291, 75.056223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }