{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6d01bd2-5594-4747-8dff-0cb58f07d7f7", "symbol": "TEL2-B", "name": "Tele2 AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.882, "architecture_energy": 64.999, "architecture_maturity": 13.356, "architecture_confidence": 87.745, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.57, "rotation_up": 12.35, "upward_expansion": 14.18, "deceleration": 38.84, "rotation_down": 69.56, "downward_expansion": 89.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.093332, 166.832727, 171.974228, 174.864484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 163.949997, "trend_reference": 175.713248, "distance_from_trend": -0.066946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 120.739547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.350483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036081, "excess_performance": -0.097575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066946, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047155, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.357882, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7656252, "relative_activity": 0.689997, "balance": 0.805801, "dry_up": 1.609638, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053461, "annualized_volatility": 0.241043, "from_high_reference": -0.14934, "from_low_reference": 0.179209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.713248, "fair_value_reference": 120.739547, "structural_low": 156.449997, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038465, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.035641, "worst_return": -0.10009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.061041, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005806, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297013, "worst_return": -0.123576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01168, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30584, "worst_return": -0.224687, "sufficient": 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174.218779, "fair_value": 118.838298, "relative_strength": -8.738469, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.152558, "energy": 64.806526, "activity_lines": [ 166.853338, 171.38065, 176.015096, 176.898426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 163.5, "volume": 41330836, "typical_volume": 10793395.45, "trend": 174.71682, "fair_value": 119.455638, "relative_strength": -8.909788, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.743142, "energy": 65.914371, "activity_lines": [ 164.98667, 169.446366, 174.497363, 176.206891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 165.149994, "volume": 12006211, "typical_volume": 11058170.45, "trend": 175.190488, "fair_value": 120.103533, "relative_strength": -9.129494, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.155614, "energy": 60.037366, "activity_lines": [ 164.366667, 168.090001, 173.244043, 175.589677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.949997, "volume": 7656252, "typical_volume": 11096060.9, "trend": 175.713248, "fair_value": 120.739547, "relative_strength": -11.350483, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.881579, "energy": 64.999066, "activity_lines": [ 164.093332, 166.832727, 171.974228, 174.864484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }