{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6d424f1-5952-42ab-954f-6ad68064a269", "symbol": "6470", "name": "U-MEDIA Communications, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.459, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.175, "architecture_energy": 75.241, "architecture_maturity": 11.185, "architecture_confidence": 78.075, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.39, "rotation_up": 8.81, "upward_expansion": 16.24, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 80.16, "downward_expansion": 94.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.810466, 43.907275, 44.647182, 45.21203 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 41.950001, "trend_reference": 46.089255, "distance_from_trend": -0.08981, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.423707, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115421, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.72779, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.169453, "excess_performance": -0.610825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08981, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03008, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115421, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02068, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096043, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137031, "relative_activity": 0.412007, "balance": 1.096043, "dry_up": 0.719473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048218, "annualized_volatility": 0.179899, "from_high_reference": -0.18764, "from_low_reference": 0.132756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.089255, "fair_value_reference": 47.423707, "structural_low": 40.849998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.014184, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.03835, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.177106, "worst_return": -0.112513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035067, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069653, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.181918, "worst_return": -0.13775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069192, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.186536, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.186505, "worst_return": -0.152593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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46.111342, 46.057658, 45.758866, 46.042137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.572205, "volume": 122092, "typical_volume": 487252.6, "trend": 45.706141, "fair_value": 48.04787, "relative_strength": -24.966585, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.200167, "energy": 10.717078, "activity_lines": [ 45.577356, 45.840066, 45.604504, 45.977593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.24239, "volume": 139029, "typical_volume": 424258.45, "trend": 45.833356, "fair_value": 47.873593, "relative_strength": -26.270079, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.815981, "energy": 28.328366, "activity_lines": [ 44.999394, 45.571074, 45.447449, 45.883157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.450001, "volume": 485039, "typical_volume": 363265.8, "trend": 45.922812, "fair_value": 47.698208, "relative_strength": -27.425428, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.768156, "energy": 65.717672, "activity_lines": [ 44.015576, 44.966769, 45.14998, 45.664876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.0, "volume": 196071, "typical_volume": 341253.7, "trend": 46.046306, "fair_value": 47.560225, "relative_strength": -27.320317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.110174, "energy": 68.607352, "activity_lines": [ 43.472792, 44.509617, 44.938331, 45.476308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.950001, "volume": 137031, "typical_volume": 332594.05, "trend": 46.089255, "fair_value": 47.423707, "relative_strength": -30.72779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.175264, "energy": 75.241285, "activity_lines": [ 42.810466, 43.907275, 44.647182, 45.21203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }