{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6d6755c-a5a6-451f-84a9-f1da6e1d674c", "symbol": "MAC", "name": "Macerich Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.708, "architecture_energy": 48.594, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.242, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.24, "rotation_up": 50.77, "upward_expansion": 80.77, "deceleration": 68.23, "rotation_down": 26.42, "downward_expansion": 7.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.292, 25.242695, 24.193147, 23.07143 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.4, "trend_reference": 21.638422, "distance_from_trend": 0.127624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.541394, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475087, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.136213, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.263299, "excess_performance": 0.137674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101362, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.263299, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37050269, "relative_activity": 2.309817, "balance": 0.733724, "dry_up": 1.104763, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066719, "annualized_volatility": 0.355015, "from_high_reference": -0.085286, "from_low_reference": 0.560361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.638422, "fair_value_reference": 16.541394, "structural_low": 17.345645, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.019375, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.413793, "median_excess_return": -0.035036, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.230684, "worst_return": -0.187923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000404, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021623, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.418713, "worst_return": -0.286331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008221, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05214, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.556527, "worst_return": -0.172505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 14600126.8, "trend": 21.426247, "fair_value": 16.456347, "relative_strength": 21.216429, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.320336, "energy": 58.370928, "activity_lines": [ 25.674667, 25.321748, 24.035946, 22.879575 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.4, "volume": 37050269, "typical_volume": 16040350.1, "trend": 21.638422, "fair_value": 16.541394, "relative_strength": 10.136213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.707958, "energy": 48.593993, "activity_lines": [ 25.292, 25.242695, 24.193147, 23.07143 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }