{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6d9f7d3-74fb-4662-b39b-a7ed0e1b8b82", "symbol": "ORAT", "name": "Ormat Technologies, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.855, "architecture_energy": 63.19, "architecture_maturity": 11.426, "architecture_confidence": 76.455, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.13, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 28.7, "deceleration": 49.72, "rotation_down": 73.95, "downward_expansion": 58.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.443332, 95.229999, 101.006509, 100.78542 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 93.849998, "trend_reference": 100.677942, "distance_from_trend": -0.06782, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.018465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.803994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.099338, "excess_performance": -0.273585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06782, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167331, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099338, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 38.551724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 277, "relative_activity": 1.262822, "balance": 38.551724, "dry_up": 0.329382, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077089, "annualized_volatility": 0.397153, "from_high_reference": -0.247394, "from_low_reference": 0.266314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.677942, "fair_value_reference": 77.018465, "structural_low": 82.650002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.16559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217504, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145064, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": 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[ 106.633333, 110.240092, 106.281426, 104.027687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 96.75, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 303.65, "trend": 101.52496, "fair_value": 76.642727, "relative_strength": -16.187398, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.212445, "energy": 26.816989, "activity_lines": [ 101.97, 107.831709, 105.741807, 103.721301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.150002, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 276.5, "trend": 101.429445, "fair_value": 76.747852, "relative_strength": -19.312152, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.248565, "energy": 45.799228, "activity_lines": [ 97.13, 104.402326, 104.67759, 103.051949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.849998, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 243.15, "trend": 101.231405, "fair_value": 76.842112, "relative_strength": -21.362727, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.136117, "energy": 60.779173, "activity_lines": [ 93.753333, 100.95, 103.464444, 102.304888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.699997, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 226.3, "trend": 100.870344, "fair_value": 76.89824, "relative_strength": -25.563522, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.355473, "energy": 73.918641, "activity_lines": [ 89.963332, 96.96909, 101.772107, 101.238345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.849998, "volume": 277, "typical_volume": 219.35, "trend": 100.677942, "fair_value": 77.018465, "relative_strength": -19.803994, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.854962, "energy": 63.190212, "activity_lines": [ 90.443332, 95.229999, 101.006509, 100.78542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }