{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c6dbec6f-94a4-4a81-b2a8-91ce32806f2d", "symbol": "EXE", "name": "EXPAND ENERGY CORPORATION", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.95, "architecture_energy": 87.039, "architecture_maturity": 67.505, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.99, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 32.34, "deceleration": 43.05, "rotation_down": 55.2, "downward_expansion": 82.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1585.066667, 1582.563636, 1619.697845, 1678.552076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1574.0, "trend_reference": 1761.23632, "distance_from_trend": -0.10631, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1654.965765, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.29537, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176648, "excess_performance": -0.121982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00235, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.214697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72, "relative_activity": 0.854599, "balance": 0.214697, "dry_up": 0.62908, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012441, "annualized_volatility": 0.21505, "from_high_reference": -0.260565, "from_low_reference": 0.002548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1761.23632, "fair_value_reference": 1654.965765, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.528805, "energy": 72.293215, "activity_lines": [ 1584.266667, 1625.554108, 1705.573358, 1772.455745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1580.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.65, "trend": 1852.2448, "fair_value": 1656.545451, "relative_strength": -19.143455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.466043, "energy": 68.562493, "activity_lines": [ 1580.0, 1611.287389, 1687.095533, 1753.71167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1580.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.65, "trend": 1833.956437, "fair_value": 1656.212847, "relative_strength": -18.121612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.85255, "energy": 67.432399, "activity_lines": [ 1580.0, 1598.965004, 1670.197225, 1736.14749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1570.0, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 76.15, "trend": 1815.334741, "fair_value": 1655.816141, "relative_strength": -18.452909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.955895, "energy": 90.320635, "activity_lines": [ 1576.666667, 1588.537274, 1653.926052, 1719.118042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1570.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 76.15, "trend": 1796.713045, "fair_value": 1655.419434, "relative_strength": -17.819772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.222391, "energy": 87.872651, "activity_lines": [ 1574.0, 1580.963636, 1639.282015, 1703.289994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1619.0, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 80.65, "trend": 1779.724682, "fair_value": 1655.33683, "relative_strength": -15.466713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.620884, "energy": 83.470421, "activity_lines": [ 1588.333333, 1585.163636, 1630.934517, 1691.824637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1574.0, "volume": 72, "typical_volume": 84.25, "trend": 1761.23632, "fair_value": 1654.965765, "relative_strength": -17.29537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.95008, "energy": 87.039077, "activity_lines": [ 1585.066667, 1582.563636, 1619.697845, 1678.552076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }